NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Lightning vs Islanders (Thursday, February 8)
Mark LoMoglio/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Nikita Kucherov #86 of the Tampa Bay Lightning
Lightning vs. Islanders Odds
| Lightning Odds | +116 |
| Islanders Odds | -140 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -106o / -114u |
Here's everything you need to know about Lightning vs. Islanders on Thursday, Feb. 8 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
On Thursday night, the Lightning take on the Islanders in what will be the first of three meetings between these teams this season. For both clubs, tonight's tilt marks their second game since returning from the NHL All-Star break.
The Islanders earned an exciting victory in their first game back on Monday while the Lightning are fresh off a loss to the New York Rangers.
This should be an exciting battle between two clubs that have built up a bit of a rivalry since facing off in the 2020 Eastern Conference Finals.
Let's dig into the NHL odds and make a Lightning vs. Islanders prediction and pick.
After an underwhelming start to the season, the Lightning looked like their old selves in January. Finishing the month with a 9-3-0 record, Tampa Bay is firmly back in the playoff mix, currently holding down the third spot in the Atlantic Division.
While the underlying numbers indicate the Lightning have played well of late, they have not been quite as dominant as their record suggests. In January, the Bolts at 5-on-5 ranked 20th in xGF/60, 5th in xGA/60 and 12th in xGF%.
With Andrei Vasilevskiy not looking comfortable in the crease at times, it has been Tampa Bay’s defensive-zone play that has fueled this turnaround. The other catalyst, of course, has been the power play, which is now the league’s No. 1 unit, clicking at 29.7%.
Unsurprisingly, it is the usual suspects that are carrying this unit and the Lightning’s offense. Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman, Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov are all scoring around a point per game this season. Kucherov, who has 86 points through 50 games, is one of the frontrunners for the Hart Trophy.
Thursday’s contest marks the second of a back-to-back for the Bolts, so we’ll likely see backup goaltender Jonas Johansson get the nod. He owns a 3.34 GAA and a .894 SV % while allowing -3.70 GSAx.
As a team, the Lightning have been OK in the second leg of back-to-backs: They have gone 2-2-0 with the over hitting in three of those games.
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The Patrick Roy era is here in full force, and the name of the game is defense.
Over the All-Star break, Roy made his mark on the coaching staff, hiring Benoit Desrosiers, his longtime lieutenant and defensive specialist. The early returns have been positive.
While New York is just 2-2-1 under Roy, its 2.23 xGA/60 at 5-on-5 ranks ninth over that span. In Desrosiers’ debut behind the bench, the Islanders held the high-flying Maple Leafs to only two goals.
Star goaltender Ilya Sorokin has also looked more like himself since the coaching change, allowing seven total goals across his three starts.
With the Islanders showing progress on the defensive end, an offensive dry spell now appears to be what is holding them back. They are scoring just 2.58 GF/60 under Roy, but the underlying numbers indicate New York is driving play and creating chances at even strength.
Over the last five games, the Islanders' 2.72 xGF/60 at 5-on-5 is the NHL's 10th-best mark. Their 54.97 xGF% ranks eighth. The results have yet to follow because New York owns the league's fifth-worst all-situations shooting percentage during this stretch.
Overall, the Islanders have been far more competitive since Roy took over, and each game has been decided by one goal.
The sample size is still small, but they appear due for some positive regression on offense, which should lead to more wins going forward.
Lightning vs. Islanders
Betting Pick & Prediction
Given the post-All-Star break volatility we've seen, I'm going to avoid picking a winner in this one. This result feels especially unpredictable with Tampa Bay having played last night and New York on three days' rest.
Instead, I have my eyes on two plays: Lightning to score first in the first period, and Kucherov anytime goalscorer.
After a dominant start last night, I think the Bolts will come out fast again in this one. It wouldn't be shocking to see them become a bit sluggish as the game wears on, but I think they'll come out with more jump than the Islanders and find the back of the net early.
In terms of Kucherov, I'm jumping on him scoring a goal at plus money while I can. After acting as the villain of All-Star weekend, he was sharp last night, creating several chances and even hitting a post.
The Islanders' penalty kill is the league's worst, and they have allowed six total power-play goals in five games under Roy. Kucherov, who is tied for the team lead with 11 power-play goals, has a good chance to score in this one.
Picks: Nikita Kucherov Anytime Goalscorer (+105 at FanDuel, play to +100) | Tampa Bay Lightning to score 1st goal of 1st period (+140 at FanDuel, play to +110)
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