NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Lightning vs Jets (Tuesday, January 2)
(Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
Lightning vs. Jets Odds
| Lightning Odds | +115 |
| Jets Odds | -138 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +110 / -134 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Winnipeg Jets on Tuesday, Jan. 2 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Lightning’s dominance of years past has waned, but they’re still a force. While they have gone 6-4 in their last 10 games, they dropped two of their last three.
Winnipeg ended 2023 on a high note, sweeping a home-at-home against the Wild. The Jets have been one of the hottest teams in the NHL, going 7-1-2 in their last 10. Winnipeg is also in a three-way battle for first place in the Central Division with Colorado and Dallas.
At this point, we all know how deadly the Lightning can be.
Nikita Kucherov is a scoring machine with 61 points in 37 games while Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman are all averaging at least one point per game. What’s really stifling this team is goaltending, which used to be its strength.
What’s surprising about Tampa Bay is how mediocre it is 5-on-5. The Bolts rank 23rd in expected goals with a 48.3 xGF%, and 23rd in expected goals allowed per 60 minutes with a 2.77 xGA/60.
Luckily, special teams have saved the Lightning. Tampa Bay has the third-best power play, scoring at a 29% clip, and the penalty kill succeeds 80% of the time.
Andrei Vasilevskiy is back to his normal workload since coming back from back surgery. But that doesn’t mean the numbers are what he’s used to seeing. The two-time Vezina Trophy winner is playing to a .900 SV% and a +3.4 goals saved above expected (GSAx).
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Despite missing sniper Kyle Connor to injury, the Jets are a force to be reckoned with.
The first-line compiling of Mark Scheifele, Gabriel Vilardi and Nikolaj Ehlers have built incredible chemistry. Not only that, but Josh Morrissey is playing like one of the best defensemen in the league.
Conversely to its counterparts, Winnipeg is highly efficient at 5-on-5. It plays to a 52.62 xGF% and an eighth-best 2.45 xGA/60.
The Jets’ special teams are far from polished. Last year, they had a solid power play, but now only score at a 17.4% pace. Along with that, their penalty kill is lacking, succeeding only 75% of the time.
After signing his extension with the Jets, Connor Hellebuyck struggled out of the gate. However, in the past month or two, his game has drastically improved, inserting himself back into Vezina conversations. He’s played to a .935 SV% in his last 15 starts and a +13.5 GSAx.
Lightning vs. Jets
Betting Pick & Prediction
This game is so fascinating because these two teams are so even, yet so different at the same time.
The skill is pretty even, but I’ll give Tampa Bay the edge in high-end skill for Kucherov alone. Winnipeg has the structure, goaltending and consistency down, while the Lightning have the special teams advantage.
Winnipeg doesn’t find itself in the penalty box a ton, but when it does, Tampa Bay can make the Jets pay.
I’m feeling a little spicy with this pick as I think this game has potential to head into overtime. Both haven’t found themselves in overtime a ton in the past month, so why not? Let’s start 2024 with an overtime pick.
Pick: Lightning vs. Jets 60 Minute Moneyline Tie (+360)
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