NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Lightning vs Sharks (Thursday, March 21)
(Photo by Mike Carlson/NHLI via Getty Images) Pictured: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Lightning vs. Sharks Odds
| Lightning Odds | -360 |
| Sharks Odds | +280 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -115/ -105 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Tampa Bay Lightning vs. San Jose Sharks on Thursday, March 21 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The over has been the bet to make when the Lightning and Sharks have squared off over the past couple of seasons as it is 7-3 across their past 10 meetings. Find out why I expect another high-scoring contest on Thursday as I make a Lightning vs Sharks prediction.
Tampa Bay is one of the best over teams in hockey — a trend has been emphasized lately with seven or more total goals scored in each of its past six games. The over is 6-0 across those six outings.
This trend is a product of multiple variables. First, the offense has been on fire and averaged five goals per game over those six contests.
On the season, the Lightning rank in the top five in goals scored per game, power play percentage and shooting percentage. Their underlying metrics are also strong as they rank 11th in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60).
However, things haven't gone nearly as well on the defensive end of the ice. The Lightning rank 24th in goals allowed per game.
Their biggest problem is that they bleed high danger scoring chances and rank 19th in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).
San Jose is even worse defensively, which is likely going to result in a disaster against a Lightning offense that has been on fire. Possessing the worst blue line in hockey, the Sharks rank last in both goals allowed per game and shots on goal allowed per game.
Their analytics are just as bad, ranking last in xGA/60. Backing up this struggling blue line is goaltender Magnus Chrona, who is having a historically poor rookie year.
Through nine appearances in the crease, Chrona is 1-6-1 with a .859 SV% and a 4.71 GAA. He's allowed seven or more goals twice over his past six starts.
Chrona has never faced Tampa, but considering he just allowed eight goals against Nashville, he's likely in for another long night.
Lightning vs. Sharks
Betting Pick & Prediction
Meanwhile, goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy is projected for Tampa Bay, which is another reason to attack the over. Those are words I never expected to type.
However, he simply hasn't returned to form following his offseason back surgery. Vasilevskiy has allowed three or more goals in 11 of his past 13 starts and posted a fade-worthy .885 SV% and a 3.42 GAA over that stretch.
There were seven or more total goals scored in 10 of those 13 games.
Finally, we are catching a good line on Over 6.5, which is -105 at BetRivers. That price is five-to-10 cents longer than the rest of the market.
Pick: Over 6.5 (-105 at BetRivers) | Play to -110
How would you rate this article?
Follow Us On Social
