NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Maple Leafs vs Capitals (Wednesday, March 20)
Via Claus Anderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Joseph Woll #60 of the Toronto Maple Leafs warms up prior to playing against the Arizona Coyotes in an NHL game at Scotiabank Arena on February 29, 2024 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Maple Leafs vs. Capitals Odds
| Maple Leafs Odds | -140 |
| Capitals Odds | +120 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +105/ -125 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Washington Capitals on Wednesday, March 20 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The over has been the bet to make when the Maple Leafs and Capitals have squared off over the past couple of seasons as it is 6-2-1 over the past nine meetings. Find out why I expect another high-scoring contest on Wednesday as I make a Maple Leafs vs Capitals prediction.
It is no secret that Toronto possesses one of the best offenses in the league, and it has for years now. Entering this matchup, the Maple Leafs rank in the top seven of the league in Goals Scored per game, Shots on Goal per game, Power Play Percentage and Shooting Percentage.
The reason for this offensive success is that they generate High Danger Scoring Chances at an elite level, ranking fourth in Expected Goals For per 60 minutes (xGF/60). Therefore, I am not worried about regression with this group.
However, things have not gone nearly as well on the other end of the ice as the Leafs rank in the bottom half of the league in Goals Allowed per game, Penalty Minutes Taken per game and Penalty Kill Percentage. Defensively, Toronto is on the other end of the spectrum analytically than it is on offense, ranking 19th in Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).
Goaltender Joseph Woll backs up this defensively inefficient team, and he is slated to guard the cage on Wednesday. While Woll's surface-level stats are strong this year, I want to continue to sell high on him because he has not played at the same level since returning from that ankle injury.
He has now allowed four goals in back-to-back starts, going 0-2 over that stretch with a fade-worthy .846 SV% and 4.06 GAA.
Across the ice, goaltender Charlie Lindgren is slated to start between the pipes for Washington. His surface-level stats are strong this year, but that just gives us an opportunity to sell high on someone who has struggled against Toronto throughout his career.
Over six career appearances against the Leafs, Lindgren is 2-3 with a .903 SV% and 3.80 GAA. Additionally, he has to deal with one of the league's worst defenses in front of him.
This season, the Capitals rank in the bottom half of the league in Goals Allowed per game, Shots on Goal Allowed per game and Penalty Kill Percentage. Based on their underlying metrics, positive regression is unlikely as they rank 25th in xGA/60 at 5-on-5.
Lindgren has typically bailed this defense out this year, but if his woes against Toronto continue on Wednesday, then the Leafs could put up a crooked number.
Maple Leafs vs. Capitals
Betting Pick & Prediction
There is a lot to like about Over 6.5 in this spot, especially at +108 via FanDuel, a line that is three cents longer than the rest of the market at the time of writing. Both defenses are below average, both statistically and analytically.
That makes life difficult for Woll and Lindgren. On top of that, Woll has struggled since returning from his ankle injury while Lindgren has typically struggled against Toronto.
Finally, this Leafs offense can explode at any time and score five or six goals themselves, which is definitely attainable against this Capitals blue line.
Pick: Over 6.5 (+108 at FanDuel) | Play to +100
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