NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Maple Leafs vs Senators (Saturday, February 10)
OTTAWA, ON – OCTOBER 21: Ottawa Senators Right Wing Vladimir Tarasenko (91) after a whistle during second period National Hockey League action between the Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators on October 21, 2023, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Maple Leafs vs. Senators Odds
| Maple Leafs Odds | -150 |
| Senators Odds | +125 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -140 / +120 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators on Saturday, February 10 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Battle of Ontario on Hockey Night in Canada! For hockey fans, this is the only appropriate precursor to Super Bowl Sunday.
The Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators have one of the most tumultuous rivalries of the past 30 years. Every time these teams step on the ice, they're fighting battles that were started decades ago. And that intensity is only getting ratcheted higher on Saturday.
Neither team is where they thought they would be in the standings. Ottawa was supposed to take another big step forward in its development and compete for a playoff spot. Instead, they're languishing in the Eastern Conference basement. Likewise, the Leafs were supposed to fighting for the Atlantic Division banner, instead of fending off contenders for a wild card spot.
The moral victory is worth just as much as the two points when these teams collide. Surely, this intra-divisional battle will live up to the hype.
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Things got a little crazy the last time the Maple Leafs took to the ice. Toronto repelled a fierce Dallas Stars attack on Wednesday night, holding on for a hard-fought 5-4 victory. There are no hollow victories in the NHL, but Toronto's win extended an alarming trend that has plagued the Leafs all season — Toronto has lost its analytics stronghold.
The upper management change may have had a cascading effect on the Maple Leafs' on-ice product. Toronto has fallen from grace. So far this season, they've compiled the 18th-best expected goals-for percentage, posting a disheartening 49.9% rating on the season. Those metrics have taken a hit over the Leafs' recent sample, with the Original Six franchise's percentage dropping to 47.6% over their last six. As expected, they've only outplayed two opponents over that six-game sample.
Somehow, the Leafs are a respectable 4-2-0 over that stretch. Not only that, but they've beaten some of the best teams the NHL has to offer. Toronto knocked off the Winnipeg Jets twice, the aforementioned Stars and the revitalized Seattle Kraken. However, in doing so, they've tilted their metrics away from the sustainable end of the spectrum, putting them at risk of regression over their coming games.
Only eight of their last 19 goals have come at 5-on-5, illustrating an increased reliance on special teams scoring to keep them competitive. Moreover, they've been out-scored 11-8 at 5-on-5, yielding an actual goals-for rating of 42.1%.
The Maple Leafs can't continue to play their system and walk away victorious.
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The new year has brought out the best the Ottawa Senators have to offer. It took a while before the results started to reflect their efforts, but the 'Sens have built a ton of momentum over the past couple of weeks.
Since January 13, Ottawa has been one of the best analytics teams in the league. Over that 10-game sample, the 'Sens have put together some elite metrics. They've out-chanced their opponents in scoring chances in all but one of those outings without getting out-chanced in high-danger chances.
Predictably, those metrics have precipitated a significant boost to the Senators' expected goals-for rating. That number has jumped to 57.3%, second-best in the NHL across that sample.
More importantly, that assertive play is starting to translate to improved results. Ottawa has won four of its past six, with a 6-2-2 record since January 13. Solid underlying metrics, home-ice advantage and a favorable matchup support that string of good fortune will continue at the Canadian Tire Centre on Saturday night.
Maple Leafs vs. Senators
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Toronto Maple Leafs are undeserving of their distinction as favorites. Ottawa has been the superior team over the past few weeks and has the added advantage of playing in their friendly confines.
We're planting our flag in the Senators' moneyline, backing Ottawa at any plus-money integer.
Pick: Senators ML (+120 via bet365)
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