NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Oilers vs Predators (Tuesday, October 17)
Andy Devlin/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Connor McDavid #97 of the Edmonton Oilers
Oilers vs Predators Odds
| Oilers Odds | -138 |
| Predators Odds | +115 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -142 / +116 |
Two games into the season, and the sky is already falling for the Edmonton Oilers.
Their worst fears have been confirmed as Edmonton's goaltending woes have followed them into the 2023-24 season.
Stuart Skinner and Jack Campbell have combined to allow 12 goals on 48 shots for an awful 75.0% save percentage to start the campaign.
Traveling to the Volunteer State could be Edmonton's saving grace as they take on an offensively underwhelming Nashville Predators squad.
Bettors can't get enough of the Edmonton side with Oilers vs Predators Tuesday night, and their confidence should be rewarded.
The Oilers laid a self-proclaimed egg in the season opener, suffering a humbling 8-1 defeat at the hands of the Vancouver Canucks.
Subsequently, they dropped the back end of the home-and-home series, losing 4-3 at Rogers Place on Saturday night. Although the outcomes didn't go their way, the advanced metrics support that Edmonton was the superior team.
Connor McDavid and company out-chanced their opponents in high-danger chances in both games. Cumulatively, the Oilers attempted 26 high-danger chances compared to Vancouver's 12. Further, they had a pronounced advantage in scoring chances in both contests, combining for a 50-29 margin.
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Still, the Oilers managed just one goal at five-on-five, resulting in an uncharacteristic 2.4% shooting percentage. Although their shooting percentage across all strengths jumps to 6.0%, they are still well off their normal range.
It's too early in the season for the Oilers to be this snake-bitten, and goals should start coming in bunches for this high-octane bunch.
The opposite is true for goaltenders, and pucks should stop going in the Oilers' net.
Skinner finished as the runner-up in Calder Trophy (Rookie of the Year) voting, stringing together a 91.0% save percentage, with 14.1 goals saved above average. Already this season, Skinner's save percentage is down to 75.0%, posting -5.0 goals saved above average through 90 minutes of action.
We knew goaltending would be a weakness for Edmonton, but this standard is below the absolute worst expectations. Like their offense, Skinner is a progression candidate and should improve his metrics in short order.
Defensive responsibility is the hallmark of the Predators' systems, and that's evident again to start the 2023-24 season.
Nashville has limited its first three opponents to nine or fewer high-danger and 22 or fewer scoring chances. On average, they're allowing a paltry 7.3 quality opportunities and 18.7 scoring chances per game.
Those metrics look even more impressive when adjusted for opponent; all three teams they've faced – the Tampa Bay Lightning, Seattle Kraken and Boston Bruins – were playoff squads last season. Nashville will need every ounce of that defensive integrity to limit the Oilers.
Still, the Preds haven't matched that elite standing in the attacking zone. Nashville hasn't eclipsed nine high-danger or 19 scoring chances in any of their outings this year, averaging 8.3 and 18.0, respectively.
Predictably, their output matches their production with the Predators recording just three goals on 57 shots at five-on-five and nine goals on 101 shots across all strengths.
Even against the porous Oilers netminders, Nashville lacks elite top-end skill players for meaningful scoring.
In 2022-23, the Predators had only two players who surpassed 43 points: Roman Josi and Matt Duchene. Duchene departed for greener pastures, and there are only so many goals a defenseman can deliver.
These scoring issues are analogous to what we saw last year and what we should expect throughout the campaign.
Oilers vs. Predators
Betting Pick & Prediction
Defense may win championships, but it will take more than that for the Predators to defeat the Oilers.
Although Nashville has the defensive structure to limit Edmonton, it's unlikely the Predators prevent them from scoring altogether.
Moreover, the Preds don't have the offensive firepower to keep pace.
On that basis, we're betting this game stays beneath the total with the Oilers prevailing.
Picks: Oilers -145 (Caesars), Under 6.5 (+110 at FanDuel)
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