Penguins vs Stars Prediction | NHL Odds, Pick, Preview (Friday, March 22)

Penguins vs Stars Prediction | NHL Odds, Pick, Preview (Friday, March 22) article feature image

Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Jason Robertson.

Penguins vs Stars Odds

Friday, March 22
8 p.m. ET
Penguins Odds+162
Stars Odds-195
Over / Under
-105 / -115
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.

Here's everything you need to know about Penguins vs Stars on Friday, March 22, including our expert NHL prediction and betting pick.

Penguins vs Stars odds have the Stars installed as -195 favorites on the moneyline, with an over/under set at 6.5 total goals. My Penguins vs Stars prediction, however, is on the Stars' puck line (-1.5), which sits at +130 (Caesars).

The Penguins are in a bind. They’re nine points out of the final NHL playoff spot, and it looks like they’ll be golfing early. Pittsburgh has traded wins and losses over its last five games, and its recent 3-6-1 stretch is not helping its chances to make the NHL playoffs.

The Stars are in a completely different situation as winners in each of their two last games. Now only that, but the Stars are in a heated three-way battle for supremacy in the NHL Central Division. Going 7-3 in their last 10 games hasn’t hurt, either.

Continue reading for my Penguins vs Stars prediction and pick in my NHL betting preview.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Everyone knows the figureheads in the Steel City.

Sidney Crosby is still a menace, averaging more than one point per game. Evgeni Malkin, though, is not the player he once was, with just one goal in his last eight games.

Bryan Rust is still performing at a solid pace, but besides him and Crosby, there’s not much to write home about.

Pittsburgh hasn’t really played a strong 5-on-5 game. During the month of March, its 5-on-5 offense has ranked 19th with a 48.5 xGF%. Pittsburgh also ranks worst in the NHL defensively with a 3.24 xGA/60.

To the surprise of no one, Pittsburgh’s power play has been invisible, only scoring at a 6.75% clip in the last 10 games. The penalty kill isn’t great, either, at 75%.

I expect to see Tristan Jarry tonight. The former All Star is having a decent season by his standards, but he’s going through a rough stretch. During his last eight starts, Jarry is playing to an .862 SV%. For the season, he holds a 5.2 goals saved above expected (GSAx).

Dallas Stars

The Stars have one of the more high-octane offenses in the NHL and boast dynamic playmakers.

Jason Robertson is an absolute stud and has 13 points in his last 10 games. Matt Duchene is proving to be a valuable asset to this roster but hasn’t been much of a help as of late. Wyatt Johnston has significantly contributed to the team's hot stretch with 10 points in his last seven games.

In the month of March, Dallas has had a pretty strong 5-on-5 game. It has driven play at a solid pace with a 52.1 xGF% and has performed well defensively at a 2.21 xGA/60.

The Stars power play is still among the elite: During the last 10 games, Dallas has scored at a 27.3% pace. However, the Stars’ penalty kill is a completely different story, at a dreadful 65%.

At the start of the season, Jake Oettinger was playing like a top-three goalie in the NHL. After November, though, he’s been brutally inconsistent. During the most recent 10-game stretch, Oettinger has played to an abysmal .838 SV%, and for the season he has a -6.8 GSAx.

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Penguins vs. Stars

Betting Pick & Prediction

Despite the poor efforts from Oettinger, Dallas is still the superior team here, and it’s not even close. The Stars have the perfect blend of young stars and battle-tested veterans, and they all work well together.

I’m so discouraged with the Penguins. It’s clear they’re missing the playoffs, and they have lost by more than one goal six times this month. Pittsburgh is proverbially waving the white flag, and I can’t see the Pens coming in with fire after being depleted all month.

At +130, I see a ton of value in the Stars puck line here.

Pick: Dallas Stars -1.5 (+130; Caesars Sportsbook) or better

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