NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Predators vs Flames (Tuesday, November 7)
Pictured: Juuse Saros. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
Predators vs. Flames Odds
| Predators Odds | +125 |
| Flames Odds | -150 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -132 / +108 |
The Nashville Predators continue their road trip and visit the Calgary Flames. The Predators have had an inconsistent start to the season, but after a win against the Oilers on Saturday, a matchup against the struggling Flames could help.
The Flames are fresh off a win against the Kraken, but it's been a rough start to the campaign. So, which side has the advantage Tuesday? Well, here’s a look at the odds, as well as my betting prediction for Predators vs. Flames.
In Barry Trotz’s first year as Nashville's general manager, he’s done a fine job building the roster. Filip Forsberg is a staple for this squad and leads the team in scoring. Ryan O’Reilly has proven to be a great signing and Tommy Novak has scored in two straight games. And don't forget captain Roman Josi, the backbone of this franchise.
Looking at the numbers, you’d think the Predators would’ve won more games. At 5-on-5, Nashville ranks near the top in both expected goals (fourth with a 56.57 xGF%) and expected goals allowed (fifth with 2.26 xGA/60).
So why have the Predators struggled? A poor penalty kill. For a team that used to pride itself on the defensive end, Nashville has had a horrendous start on the penalty kill, succeeding just 66.7% of the time. Conversely, the power play has been good and has scored 23% of the time.
Since the Predators rolled out Kevin Lankinen in their win against the Oilers, it’s almost a foregone conclusion that Juuse Saros will start Tuesday. For the past few years, Saros has been one of the more efficient netminders in Predators' history. While I expect him to pick it up, this season has been a bit different as he’s posting a .909 SV% and -1.4 goals saved above expected (GSAx).
Calgary will be missing leading goal scorer Andrew Mangiapane after he was suspended for an illegal hit on Saturday. Jonathan Huberdeau and Nazem Kadri have been a disaster and have combined for a -24. Elias Lindholm is doing his best to keep the team afloat, and captain Mikael Backlund is one of the few players playing plus hockey.
The record may not show it, but the Flames aren’t a terrible 5-on-5 squad. They drive play at an OK rate, ranking 20th with a 47.77 xGF%. Defensively, it’s about the same as they play to a 2.75 xGA/60.
Special teams is either hit or miss, though Calgary is exceptional on the penalty kill, succeeding 89% of the time. The power play could improve, but it’s better than others, scoring at a 17% clip.
I assume Jacob Markstrom will start tonight since Dan Vladar played against Seattle. For someone on a struggling team, Markstrom’s numbers don’t look all that terrible. He has an .897 SV% and a +1.0 GSAx. Obviously it could be better, but his team isn’t helping him out much.
Predators vs. Flames
Betting Pick & Prediction
When I looked at the lines, I was stunned to see that the Flames were favored. Yes, they looked good against Seattle, but they’re not reliable enough to be a favorite. Also, missing Mangiapane will be a problem.
The Predators are — by far — the better team. They’re better at 5-on-5, on the power play and in net. If Nashville can get its penalty kill in order, it’ll easily be a playoff team. Since the penalty kill has suffered, the Predators consistently float in limbo and are unable to gain any traction. They’re better than their record suggests and I’d definitely buy into their stock this season.
This team will figure it out in the end. Calgary, on the other hand, is a different story. I’m taking the Predators moneyline and I’m not looking back.
Pick: Nashville Predators Moneyline (+125)
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