NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Rangers vs Lightning (Thursday, March 14)
Photo by Josh Lavallee/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Igor Shesterkin.
Rangers vs. Lightning Odds
| Rangers Odds | -115 |
| Lightning Odds | -105 |
| Over / Under | 6 -115o / -105u |
Here's everything you need to know about the New York Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday, March 14 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
On Thursday, the Rangers head to Amalie Arena to take on the Lightning. This marks the third and final meeting of the season between these teams. The Rangers are going for the season sweep after 5-1 and 3-1 victories earlier this season.
New York holds a six-point cushion atop the Metropolitan Division. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is barely hanging onto the Eastern Conference's top wild-card spot and looks to be in jeopardy of missing the playoffs.
Let's dig into the NHL odds and make a Rangers vs. Lighting prediction.
With three straight wins and points in 17 of their past 20 games, the Rangers are playing their best hockey of the season. Since bolstering their forward group ahead of the trade deadline with the additions of Alex Wennberg and Jack Roslovic, New York has looked like a much more complete team.
However, the key difference between the Rangers' struggles in January and their recent play has been the goaltending of Igor Shesterkin. The former Vezina Trophy winner has enjoyed a post-All-Star break resurgence, posting an 8-1-1 record across his past 10 games with a 1.50 GAA, a .956 SV% and three shutouts. The 28-year-old enters Thursday's contest fresh off back-to-back shutouts. As a team, New York has allowed just one goal over its past three games.
The Rangers' underlying numbers remain somewhat suspect, but when a team has the amount of offensive firepower and quality of goaltending that New York does, middling play-driving metrics become less worrisome. It's worth noting, though, that the Rangers have played to a 50.59 xGF% at 5-on-5 since the trade deadline. Their 5-on-5 xGF% was 48.17 over 62 games leading up to the deadline.
While the Rangers find themselves in a difficult schedule spot — traveling to Tampa Bay after a grueling back-to-back — they have had the Lightning's number of late. New York is 7-0-1 in its past eight games against Tampa Bay.
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Despite the playoff race heating up, the Lightning continue to struggle to find consistency — they are 7-7-1 since the All-Star break. Tampa Bay enters Thursday's game coming off a momentous 7-0 win over the Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday, though.
Analytically, the Lightning continue to defend well, ranking ninth in the NHL in xGA/60 at 5-on-5 since the break, but they are not generating nearly enough even-strength offense and often rely entirely on their top-ranked power play.
Since the hiatus, Tampa Bay ranks 30th in xGF/60 at 5-on-5. A team with Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman should never be that low, but the Lightning's 47.99 xGF% at 5-on-5 suggests they are no longer the play-driving team we've seen in previous years.
While Kucherov has been putting the Bolts on his back with his 107 points, their other superstar — Andrei Vasilevskiy — continues to have an up-and-down year between the pipes. Before Saturday's shutout, Vasilevskiy had given up at least three goals in eight of his past nine games. On the season, Vasilevskiy's 2.96 GAA and .896 SV% are extremely uncharacteristic numbers.
Although Tampa Bay has struggled against the Rangers of late, they are a team that has been much better at home this season. The Lightning are 20-9-4 at Amalie Arena, compared to 14-16-2 on the road.
Rangers vs. Lightning
Betting Pick & Prediction
The price on the Rangers (-110) is difficult to pass up. I see them as the much better all-around team, albeit in a difficult schedule spot. Still, New York should control play at 5-on-5, and its fourth-ranked penalty kill is capable of slowing down Tampa Bay's power play if needed.
I'm expecting the Rangers to continue to roll. They've got a ton of momentum, and I'm buying their recent success against the Lightning. Since Tampa Bay knocked New York out of the 2022 playoffs, the Rangers have consistently shown up for these games.
If you're looking for a higher-value play, I'm also targeting Under 6 (-105) and Artemi Panarin anytime goalscorer (+165).
Pick: Rangers Moneyline (-110 at FanDuel | Play to -120)
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