NHL Odds, Pick & Preview: Rangers vs. Senators (February 20)

NHL Odds, Pick & Preview: Rangers vs. Senators (February 20) article feature image

Jared Silber/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: K’Andre Miller.

  • The Senators host the Rangers on Sunday as home underdogs.
  • The Rangers have gotten off to a fast start after 14 days off, but are they overvalued in this matchup?
  • Nick Martin breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Rangers vs. Senators Odds

Rangers Odds-200
Senators Odds+160
Time5 p.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

New York has returned to play in acceptable fashion so far this week, after a 14-day layoff, claiming three of four points from the Bruins and Red Wings. It enters here in a favorable spot against the Senators.

Ottawa has grinded its way to a respectable 5-4-1 record over its last 10, while short some of its top pieces. The Senators have been a notably tough out as an underdog over the last two seasons. Will we see that trend continue here?

Rangers Hit Road For First Time In Ages

After achieving excellent results this season in spite of some lowly play-driving numbers, the Rangers have fallen into a much better run of play in that regard, achieving a 54.44 xGF% over their last seven games, in which they have managed a 4-2-1 record.

This sets up as a good spot for that to continue, as I expect their group to come out and play a fast, detailed team game. They are being offered a favorable spot against a Senators team very short in the way of elite offensive talent.

The main causation behind the Rangers' third-best goals against rating this season has been Igor Shesterkin, but New York clearly has taken some strides forward defensively this year. It's simply not easy to score goals on this unit.

So with the league's 11th-best xGF/60 rating of 3.11 over its last seven contests, it's certainly likely we see the strong results continue from a group that's managed to consistently gather points this season.

You're never going to hear me argue that this Rangers group is near the league's truly elite, but its composition has allowed it very consistent results this season. This looks like a great spot for it to keep that trend going as it plays its first road game in ages.

Alexandr Georgiev has been more and more stable as the season has ran along and could possibly get the start here, but that situation will likely not be clarified until closer to game time.

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Senators Likely Due For Regression

Ottawa has competed admirably as of late, posting a 5-4-1 record while short two of its best in Drake Batherson and Josh Norris up front, as well as its clear-cut top defensemen in Thomas Chabot the last three outings.

But with the talent on hand, you're only going to tread water effectively for so long, and a lowly 45.88 xGF% mark suggests being above .500 has been rather favorable. The likelihood this current roster can produce better results than we have seen is low, particularly with Chabot joining the IR.

The Senators have generated just 2.22 goals per game over the last 10 games, and it's hard for me to feel they are likely to trend upwards much in that regard, particularly in this back-to-back spot against the Rangers.

Rangers vs. Senators Pick

The Rangers have been a resilient group under coach Gerard Gallant this season, and they are clearly putting together a consistent work rate leading to some solid results.

They will enter this one off of a rough home loss to the Red Wings, and they have seemingly been a group revved up to get back into action coming out of their long break. I do not feel they will be pleased with that last outing.

Their play-driving numbers have improved over their last seven outings, however, they still hold the ultimate trump card in Igor Shesterkin, who has allowed them a lot of success even with lesser play this season.

Should the Rangers end up going with Georgiev, they would still have to be seen as holding a goaltending edge over Filip Gustavsson, who has been confirmed for the Sens, in a game where I expect the Rangers to control more of the run of play.

Ottawa has clearly been in a scrappy run of form as of late, but it's still hard for me to not think the Rangers can out-pace them here, control more of the game and likely keep them to a low offensive output.

I lean towards the under here, but I feel that at -125 for a regulation win backing the Rangers holds the most value, and I would back a 60-minute win down to -140.

Pick: Rangers 3-Way (Regulation) Moneyline -125 | Play to -140

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