NHL Odds, Pick, Prediction: Red Wings vs. Islanders (March 24)
Emilee Chinn/Getty Images. Pictured: New York Islanders goaltender Ilya Sorokin.
- The New York Islanders welcome the Detroit Red Wings to Long Island for Thursday's NHL showdown.
- The Islanders have won seven of their last 10 outings, while the Red Wings continue to struggle.
- Grant White breaks down the matchup below and delivers his top betting pick.
Red Wings vs. Islanders Odds
|Red Wings Odds||+170|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.|
Neither the Detroit Red Wings nor the New York Islanders have any shot at making the postseason, but these clubs are heading in opposite directions to end the season ahead of Thursday’s NHL showdown.
The Islanders have won seven of their past 10 to move ahead of the Red Wings in the standings.
Conversely, Detroit has three wins over their previous 10 outings. The betting market has landed on a reasonable price on the moneyline, but we see an advantage on the total.
Detroit Red Wings
With a roster as young as the one the Red Wings have, inconsistent efforts are a part of the maturation process. That’s been evident throughout the season, as Detroit has alternated stretches of hot and cold performances. After an extended run of poor efforts, have turned things around in a recent sample.
Over a 10-game span, the Red Wings had given up 10 or more quality chances in eight of those games, allowing no fewer than nine such chances. Opponents were steamrolling Detroit to the tune of 12.2 high-danger and 28.8 scoring chances. It could not keep pace, getting out-chanced in six of 10 contests.
Since then, the Red Wings have prioritized defense and put forth some stout efforts. Detroit has allowed six or fewer high-danger chances and 25 or fewer scoring opportunities in two of their past three games. We anticipate sustained defensive zone coverage, as the team averages work their way back down toward season norms. That will start to positively impact goals-against, leading to more low-scoring games.
It’s also worth noting Detroit isn’t a high-volume production team, preferring to play a more opportunistic brand of hockey. The Red Wings have attempted more than seven high-danger chances twice over their past six games and average 8.4 quality chances per game.
New York Islanders
If you’re talking about slow-playing offenses, you have to include head coach Barry Trotz in the conversation and that’s been his modus operandi again with this iteration of the Islanders. New York has a systematic approach to preventing opportunities and doesn’t abandon structure for a few more offensive chances.
Recently, the Islanders have stifled better offensive teams than the Red Wings, so we are expecting another solid defensive showing.
Other than the game against the Dallas Stars, the Islanders have done well to limit their opponents over their last four outings. New York has held the three other teams to nine or fewer high-danger chances and 20 or fewer scoring chances at 5-on-5. That’s all the insulation their goaltending has needed, allowing three total goals across those three games.
We’re expecting another subdued offensive performance from the Isles against the Red Wings. Over the past six games, they have attempted more than 23 scoring chances, and only twice have they eclipsed eight quality opportunities.
Combined with their defensive structure, Islanders games have gone over the total just once in four games, dropping their over/under to 26-32 on the season.
Red Wings vs. Islanders Pick
Detroit is putting together more sincere defensive efforts, a style where the Islanders thrive, so we’re anticipating chances to be at a premium. That should lead to a low-scoring affair.
On that basis, we’re backing the total staying under 5.5 goals at plus money.
Pick: Total Under 5.5 Goals (+100)