NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Sabres vs Ducks (Tuesday, January 23)
(Photo by Joe Hrycych/NHLI via Getty Images). Pictured: Casey Mittelstadt #37 and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen #1 of the Buffalo Sabres.
Sabres vs. Ducks Odds
| Sabres Odds | -164 |
| Ducks Odds | +136 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +110o / -105u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Buffalo Sabres vs. Anaheim Ducks on Tuesday, Jan. 23 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Tonight marks round one of Buffalo’s West Coast road trip, which seems to be needed. After a six-game home stand, the Sabres went 3-3, and still struggled to climb up the standings in the Atlantic Division.
There hasn’t been much to write home about in Anaheim. The Ducks are in the midst of a rebuild, and it shows. They’ve gone 2-7-1 in their last 10 games, including a loss to the Rangers, and are seventh in the Pacific Division.
Let's take a closer look at both teams in our Sabres vs. Ducks preview and pick.
In a shocking turn of events, Casey Mittelstadt is now the leading scorer for the Sabres. They’ve waited for him to become a legit player, and he is now. Rasmus Dahlin is right behind him and is among the league’s best young defensemen. There are a ton of top goal-scorers as well in Buffalo, including Tage Thompson, Jeff Skinner, Alex Tuch, and JJ Peterka.
Buffalo doesn’t exactly have the best 5-on-5 attack. On the offensive end, the Sabres rank 21st in expected goals with a 49.09 xGF% and are 18th with a 2.68 xGA/60. The power play isn’t strong either, as they only score 14.3% of the time. When they’re down a man on the penalty kill, though, they do well at 80%.
From the looks of it, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen seems to be the guy who’s taken firm control of the primary goaltender spot in Buffalo. His numbers are exceptional, playing to a .908 SV% and a 2.2 goals saved above expected (GSAx). It is of note that Luukkonen has started the past five games, so there’s a chance we see underperforming rookie Devon Levi in this one.
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There have been very few bright spots in Orange County, but Frank Vatrano is on pace to shatter his career high in goals, assists and points. Troy Terry is also always a threat to score, even if he’s had more of a hard time than in years past. To go with that, Mason McTavish and Adam Henrique are key contributors as well.
It shouldn’t be a surprise that Anaheim is near the bottom when it comes to 5-on-5 play. The Ducks are 26th at 46.45 xGF% and 25th with 2.83 xGA/60. By their standards, they’re not all that terrible on special teams. However, by league standards, they’re mediocre at best. On the power play, Anaheim scores at an 18.5% clip and on the penalty kill, it’s at 77.6%.
John Gibson is the expected starter tonight, after Lukáš Dostál started Sunday. Gibson’s numbers have not been ideal given the team in front of him. While he’s considered one of the more skilled goalies in the NHL, he’s playing to an .899 SV% and a 3.0 GSAx.
Sabres vs. Ducks
Betting Pick & Prediction
Neither of these teams are all that special. I was expecting Buffalo to be a playoff team for the past five years, and it always seems to find its way into mediocrity. The Sabres have so much talent, but they never know how to put it all together. All you have to do is look at how many goals they score versus their 5-on-5 expected goals.
With Anaheim, you know what you’re going to get. Perhaps we see a splash? Every team is due for a big game, and the last time the Ducks won by more than two goals was the first game back from the holiday break.
However, I mentioned earlier that Levi is a candidate to start. If he does, I’d lean more towards betting the underdog here. The rookie has not been the stalwart the Sabres were hoping for when he opened the season, and he’s prone to let in an easy goal or two with a 0.2 GSAx. With how well Luukkonen has played though, I think coach Tony Granato rolls with him — and because of that, I think the Sabres will win.
Regardless, I'd keep an eye out for the morning skate reports in order to best determine the perfect value.
Pick: Anaheim ML if Levi Starts (+136) / Buffalo 3-Way ML if Luukkonen starts (-110)
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