NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Sabres vs Stars (Tuesday, April 9)
Ben Ludeman/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Buffalo’s Tage Thimpson.
Sabres vs Stars Odds
| Sabres Odds | +185 |
| Stars Odds | -225 |
| Over / Under | 6 -120o / +100u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Buffalo Sabres vs. Dallas Stars on Tuesday, April 9 — our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Buffalo is playing some inconsistent hockey after making a strong run for the final playoff spot. The Sabres aren’t out of it by any means, but this 5-5 stretch over the past 10 games has made it harder.
Meanwhile, what a time for Dallas to get hot. The Stars are on an incredible tear, going 9-1 in their last 10 games, including a 7-4 victory over division rival Colorado last time out. They're now in prime position to take the Central Division.
For Buffalo, there’s a myriad of high-octane players on this roster.
Alex Tuch has racked up points in 10 of his past 11 games, and Rasmus Dahlin continues to solidify himself as a premier defenseman. Tage Thompson is having himself a heck of a stretch, with 10 points in his past five games, and JJ Peterka is only two goals away from 30.
Over the last two weeks, the Sabres have played exceptionally poor 5-on-5 hockey. They’re ranked 23rd in expected goals with a 46.24 xGF% and second-worst defensively with a 4.18 xGA/60.
The special teams have certainly struggled, especially on the power play. Buffalo scores at a 13.6% clip, while the penalty kill comes in at a decent 80%
Goaltending has become a strength for Buffalo, with Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen taking the reins. Luukkonen has had himself a wonderful season but has recently struggled, playing to an .874 save percentage in his last 10 starts.
The wealth is spread quite a bit in Dallas, as it boasts one of the more versatile rosters in hockey.
Jason Robertson has only one point in his past four games, but he leads the Stars in scoring. This team is so dynamic, with five (almost six) players with 60 or more points in Robertson, Joe Pavelski, Wyatt Johnston, Roope Hintz and Matt Duchene.
No one is playing better than the Stars, and it shows in their 5-on-5 numbers. They have the highest-ranked offense and defense with a 70.04 xGF%, and a 2.29 xGA/60 since March 25.
In the past 10 games, the special teams have also clicked. Dallas has scored at a 33% clip on the power play and succeeded on the penalty kill 87% of the time.
In goal, it's been a roller coaster of a season for Jake Oettinger. First, he started hot, then for the bulk of the season, played below average. However, in his past seven starts, he’s won every game while registering a strong .945 save percentage.
Sabres vs Stars
Betting Pick & Prediction
I fully expect this game to be low-scoring and one-sided. With how dominant the Stars have been of late, I can’t see a world where Dallas doesn’t come out on top.
However, we’re not targeting the moneyline tonight. All eyes go to the total.
Most books have the total listed at 6.5, and while both teams are capable of going over, Dallas can prevent a lot with how well things are clicking.
Not only that, but Buffalo’s 5-on-5 play and special teams have been dreadful. Luukkonen has let in easy pucks, and the play is carried by Thompson and Tuch.
Don’t be surprised if we see a low-scoring game tonight.
Pick: Under 6.5 (-120)
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