NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Senators vs Capitals (Monday, February 26)

NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Senators vs Capitals (Monday, February 26) article feature image

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Senators vs. Capitals Odds

Monday, Feb. 26
7 p.m. ET
Senators Odds-120
Capitals Odds+100
Over / Under
-105o / -115u
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.

Here's everything you need to know about the Ottawa Senators vs. Washington Capitals on Monday, February 26 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.

Ottawa is on an absolute tear of late, but the question is: Is it too late? The Senators have gone 7-2-1 in their last 10 games, including a shootout win against the Golden Knights. But it’s a long trek to the playoff race, as they’re 16 points out of the final playoff spot.

Prior to falling to the Panthers on Saturday, the Capitals won three in a row. This hasn’t been the model season though for Washington, standing eight points out of the playoff hunt.

Ottawa Senators

Someone get a fire extinguisher. Claude Giroux is on an eight-game point streak, while Tim Stützle has points in four out of his last five. Captain Brady Tkachuk leads the team in goals with 25, but hasn’t lit the lamp in six games, so could this potentially be the game in which the drought ends?

Ottawa’s 5-on-5 play over the past month has been fairly middle of the road, ranking 14th in expected goals with a 51.11 xGF%. Defensively, it’s also been at the bottom tier with a 2.74 xGA/60.

The Senators have maintained scoring on the power play 16% of the time pretty consistently. Over the past 10 games, though, the penalty kill has improved and has played to an 82.4%.

I think we’ll see Joonas Korpisalo in net tonight since Anton Forsberg started the past two games. Korpisalo is on a three-game losing streak and has been incredibly inconsistent all season long. He’s played to a lowly .887 SV% and a league-worst -15.7 goals saved above expected (GSAx).

Washington Capitals

What a weird year it’s been in America’s capital. Alex Ovechkin’s scoring touch has been essentially non-existent as he’s gunning for Wayne Gretzky’s scoring record, and Dylan Strome leads the team in scoring. The Capitals have received exceptional production from the youngster Connor McMichael, though, with five goals in his last five games.

Over the past month, Washington’s 5-on-5 play has improved. Since returning from the All-Star break, it has ranked 12th with a 51.4 xGF% and 16th with a 2.59 xGA/60.

This year has been an awfully rough year for the Capitals’ power play, but in their last 10 games, they have scored at a 30.8% clip. The penalty kill has also fared fairly well at a solid 80%.

It’s essentially been a crapshoot in net for the Capitals. Charlie Lindgren has taken the crease the last three games, so this may be an opportunity to see veteran Darcy Kuemper. Kuemper has played underwhelming since arriving in DC, and this season has an .894 SV% and a 1.2 GSAx.

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Senators vs. Capitals

Betting Pick & Prediction

This may be a recipe for a high-scoring game. Given how hot Ottawa has been this month — and Washington seems to be on a solid stretch — I anticipate some fireworks.

If my projections in net stand true, then the chances for a high-scoring game skyrockets. Korpisalo is not reliable and allows 3.4 goals per game, while Kuemper averages 3.16. Normally, I’d be comfortable with Kuemper, but his time in Washington has been less than stellar.

Both teams match up pretty well. I can see the power play being a critical part of this bout. While the Senators have fared well on the penalty kill in the last 10 games, they’re still capable of slipping up. Not only that, but they find themselves in the box approximately four times a game. It’s a perfect opportunity for Washington’s hot power play to come in.

There's a good amount of books that have the over at -105, so take your pick. I'll stick with bet365 at -105.

Pick: Over 6.5 at -105

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