NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Senators vs Ducks (Wednesday, March 6)
Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Tim Stutzle #18 of the Ottawa Senators
Senators vs. Ducks Odds
| Senators Odds | -185 |
| Ducks Odds | +155 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -115 / -105 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Ottawa Senators vs. Anaheim Ducks on Wednesday, March 6 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Two teams well outside of the playoff picture will meet Wednesday at Honda Center. Both teams traded away a top-six forward today, which will lead to new-look offensive units ahead of this lottery bowl.
We'll analyze how these trades affect these team's current rosters, as I outline my best bets for Senators vs. Ducks below.
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The Senators made their first deal of deadline season today as they traded away Vladimir Tarasenko to the Panthers.
Roster update: The #Sens have acquired a 3rd-round draft pick in 2025 and a conditional 4th-round draft pick in 2024 from @FlaPanthers in exchange for forward Vladimir Tarasenko.
The #Sens have retained 50% of Tarasenko’s salary in this transaction. 1/2
— Sens Communications (@Media_Sens) March 6, 2024
The package is definitely pretty modest for a player with Tarasenko's name power and the fact that the Senators retained 50%. However, it has to be noted that Tarasenko did have a no-trade clause, which handicapped the Senators' leverage significantly.
Tarasenko will leave a hole in the Senators' top nine, but they still have a dangerous set of forwards who can help pick up the slack in terms of production. The replacement level drop-off actually should not be overly significant, and the larger concern moving forward is the absence of Josh Norris.
Brady Tkachuk is set to return to the lineup for tonight's game, so Ottawa will still have a better lineup than we saw Saturday in Philadelphia despite Tarasenko's departure.
Over the last month of play, the Senators' 3.36 xGF/60 ranks 10th in the league. They have scored 3.27 goals per game this season, and they're still generating enough chances that such a rate can hold steady moving forward.
The problem has been that they allow 3.59 goals against per game at the other end, in largely due to some of the league's worst goaltending.
It's quite unclear who will start in goal for the Senators in this matchup. Anton Forsberg and Joonas Korpisalo are both listed as day-to-day, so we may see Mads Sogaard get a second consecutive start. Sogard has played to a -9.2 GSAx and .857 save % across five appearances this season.
The Ducks made a trade of their own Wednesday, and they shipped Adam Henrique and Sam Carrick to the Oilers in return for Edmonton's 2024 first-round pick.
Henrique is a strong two-way player who can chip in offensively, but getting a first-rounder in return is a clear win for GM Pat Verbeek.
Aside from the loss of Henrique, the Ducks could have some significant absences from tonight's matchup. Leo Carlsson and Mason McTavish both missed Sunday's matchup with San Jose, and they're listed as day-to-day.
Starting goaltender John Gibson also missed that contest, and it has been confirmed that backup Lukas Dostal will start tonight. Dostal has played to a -3.6 GSAx and .902 save % across 29 appearances this season.
Dostal should face a tough workload tonight considering where his side's defensive play has been recently. In 11 games since the All-Star break, the Ducks have given up 35.37 shots per 60 and 3.61 xGA/60. They have allowed 4.18 goals against per game.
(Are you in North Carolina? With North Carolina sports betting coming online on March 11, you can bet legally at major sportsbooks soon. Learn more.)
Senators vs. Ducks
Betting Pick & Prediction
There are a lot of moving parts ahead of this game, with both teams having already completed a trade today involving players who were inside the top-six. There is the potential that the Sens rest Chychrun tonight too, and that'd leave a big hole on a middling defense core.
The Ducks have played some really loose games versus non-playoff teams recently, and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a similar type of game tonight. The Sens' goaltending situation is a question mark, but they still have a ton of offensive talent to expose the Ducks.
Even without Tarasenko, the Sens still have a loaded power-play unit and a dangerous top-six. Henrique is a competent scorer, but he was also one of the Ducks' more effective defensive forwards. Therefore, I disagree with the movement on the price of the total today.
At -115, we have a good odds to bet this matchup going Over 6.5.
I also view this as a particularly strong matchup for Tim Stutzle, who should get favorable matchups, and he loves to work in space. Stutzle priced at +210 to record two points, and I think that is worth a smaller play to +200.
Pick: Over 6.5 -115 (Bet365, Play to -125) | Stutzle Over 1.5 Points +210 (DraftKings, Play to +200)
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