NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Senators vs Lightning (Monday, February 19)
(Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images)
Pictured: Steven Stamkos
Senators vs. Lightning Odds
| Senators Odds | +140 |
| Lightning Odds | -160 |
| Over / Under | 7 +100o / -120u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Ottawa Senators vs. Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday, February 19 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Monday’s tilt between the Ottawa Senators (22-27-2) and Tampa Bay Lightning (30-21-5) showcases two teams at different junctures of their season. These are two polarizing squads with significant disparities when it comes to offense and defense. As a result, we have a chance to capitalize on the nuances of each team's performance metrics.
Let's get to our Senators vs. Lightning preview and pick.
The Senators' season has been a mixed bag. Their offensive metrics suggest the team struggles to consistently create scoring opportunities and capitalize on them. Ranking 21st in Corsi, 24th in expected goals (xG) and 25th in high-danger chances, the Senators fail to consistently drive offense and generate quality shots.
Ottawa's lack of offensive firepower has led to a dismal road record of 7-14-0. The Senators' home versus away disparity is even more striking when you consider they rank last in Corsi when on the road.
Defensively, however, Ottawa's outlook appears more favorable. The Senators' overall rankings in Corsi against (seventh), xGA (12th) and high danger chances against (10th) indicate they are capable of effectively limiting opponents' offensive threats.
Despite these solid defensive metrics, goaltender Anton Forsberg's performance has been less than stellar, ranking toward the bottom of the league in save percentage above expected and goals saved above expected. Forsberg's struggles to stop pucks have undermined Ottawa's otherwise commendable defensive efforts. This is a vulnerability that teams like Tampa Bay are well-equipped to exploit.
The Lightning's underlying numbers paint a different picture, as they own a potent offense and a middle-of-the-pack defense. Offensively, they rank eighth in Corsi, 14th in xG, and 16th in HDCF. This indicates they consistently generate shot attempts and scoring opportunities. The Lightning's potent offense and stellar home record (18-6-3) position them nicely for this game.
On the defensive end, Tampa Bay's metrics show room for improvement. Ranking 17th in Corsi Against, 24th in xGA and 20th in HDCA, the Lightning are susceptible to quality shots on goal. However, goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy has been crucial in mitigating these defensive lapses, providing Tampa Bay with the necessary stops to stay competitive in close contests.
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Senators vs. Lightning
Betting Pick & Prediction
Given the dynamics of these teams, the most compelling bet for tonight is the Lightning moneyline at -160. Their robust offense gives them a distinct advantage over the Senators, who have struggled on the road and are dealing with goaltending issues.
With the league’s third-worst road record, Ottawa faces an uphill battle against a Tampa Bay team with a top-five record at home. Take the Lightning moneyline tonight and expect a 4-3 victory for the home team.
Pick: Lightning ML (-160)
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