NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Senators vs Lightning (Thursday, April 11)
(Photo by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) Pictured: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Senators vs. Lightning Odds
| Senators Odds | +165 |
| Lightning Odds | -200 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -115 / -105 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Ottawa Senators vs. Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday, April 11 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Senators vs. Lightning odds have Tampa Bay as a -200 moneyline favorite. The over/under is set at 6.5 goals. The Lightning have fared well in this matchup over the past half-decade and have won nine of the past 15 meetings.
Tampa Bay won six of those nine games by at least two goals, a trend I expect to continue as I make my Senators vs. Lightning prediction for Thursday.
Ottawa has seemingly packed it in as the season winds down, and has lost four of its past five games. This slide is a product of multiple variables.
First, the offense has gone cold. The Senators are averaging just 1.6 goals per game over this stretch and it certainly doesn't help that forwards Josh Norris and Tim Stutzle are sidelined with injuries.
The underlying metrics are also concerning as Tampa Bay ranks in the bottom half of the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). Things have also gone poorly on the other end of the ice as Ottawa ranks in the bottom five of the league in goals allowed per game and penalty kill percentage.
Goaltender Joonas Korpisalo is expected to guard the cage for the Senators, and he should be a good fade candidate. Through 53 appearances in the crease, Korpisalo is 20-25-4 with a fade-worthy .891 SV% and a 3.25 GAA.
Tampa Bay is trending in the opposite direction as it's starting to peak with the playoffs around the corner. The Lightning have won 11 of their past 14 games and 10 of those 11 wins have come by at least two goals.
Everything is clicking right now for this group, including the play of goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy. Over his past 12 starts, Vasilevskiy is 9-2-1 with a .922 SV% and a 2.27 GAA.
He should get plenty of goal support as the Lightning continue to roll offensively. They rank in the top five of the league in goals scored per game, power play percentage and shooting percentage.
They also rank in the top 10 in xGF/60, so I'm not too worried about regression.
Senators vs. Lightning
Betting Pick & Prediction
Tampa has rallied around Vasilevskiy's resurgence over the past few weeks, and his success is likely to continue against Ottawa. Over his past seven starts against the Senators, Vasilevskiy is 6-1 with a commanding .914 SV% and a 2.29 GAA.
There is just not a single aspect of this game in which Ottawa possesses an edge. Add in the facts that they're playing well and on home and and I don't think it will take much for the favorites to win by at least two goals.
Pick: Lightning -1.5 (+122 at FanDuel | Play to +115)
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