Senators vs Oilers NHL Odds, Picks, Predictions

Senators vs. Oilers Odds

The Ottawa Senators dropped three of the first four games of their current road trip and are slipping from the wild-card race as a result.

They need a win in Edmonton against the Oilers on Tuesday to salvage the situation before finally returning home, but overcoming their elite forward core is no easy task.

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Ottawa Senators

The Senators have a solid scoring group, but some key players have been cold over the course of the road trip. Over Ottawa's last four games, Brady Tkachuk hasn't recorded a point, Drake Batherson has been limited to an assist and Alex DeBrincat has supplied a goal, but nothing else.

They represent three of the Senators' top-five scorers. The other two on that list, Tim Stutzle and Claude Giroux, have recorded five and three points, respectively, but that hasn't been enough to compensate for their cold teammates.

The Senators have recorded just 2.00 goals per game over their last four contests. The Oilers have been held to one or fewer goals just six times all season, so if Ottawa can't break out of its recent offensive slump, then its chances of getting past Edmonton are pretty slim.

In theory, the Senators could be one of the rare teams that successfully limits Edmonton's attack, but the reality is Ottawa isn't well-suited for that task. Goaltenders Cam Talbot (lower body) and Anton Forsberg (knee) are both unavailable, which leaves the Senators with Mads Sogaard as th probable starter.

Sogaard has a 3.07 GAA and an .894 save percentage in five contests this season. He got his only taste of the Oilers on Feb. 11 when he stepped into a game Ottawa was losing 6-3 and stopped the three shots he faced in 5:23 of ice time.

That's a mild positive, but defending against Edmonton for a handful of minutes in a game the Oilers already won, and guarding the net for a full contest, are two very different things.

Anything is possible, but odds are Sogaard will need a fair bit of help from that cold offense if the Senators are going to win this one.

Edmonton Oilers

If there's a silver lining for Ottawa, it's that Edmonton isn't a bad place to go when a team is looking to revitalize its offense. The Oilers' attack is tremendous, but their defense and goaltending aren't nearly as intimidating.

As rare as it is for Edmonton to be held to fewer than two goals, it's even rarer for the Oilers to hold the competition to under two markers. Edmonton hasn't gotten a single shutout win this season and has contained the opposition to just one goal on a mere three occasions. At the same time, the Oilers have been scored on at least six times in eight different games.

Jack Campbell has been a disaster this season with a 3.57 GAA and an .882 save percentage in 32 games. He's also surrendered at least four goals in each of his last five contests, so he's trending in the wrong direction.

At this point, Stuart Skinner has taken the starting gig from him though, and has posted a much better 2.92 GAA and a .911 save percentage in 39 contests. Skinner is still a mixed bag though, and he's coming off a 7-4 loss to Toronto on Saturday, in which he stopped 31 of 37 shots.

If Edmonton had an average forward core, it'd be in trouble, but that's not the case. The Oilers lead the league offensively with 3.85 goals per game. They have the top two players in the scoring race in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl — and McDavid is having a season for the ages with 55 goals and 127 points in 67 contests. They're backed up by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman, who each have over 25 goals and 70 points.

To top it all off, Evander Kane is healthy now, giving Edmonton yet another major scoring threat. It figures to be a tough night for Sogaard.

Senators vs. Oilers Pick

The Oilers are unsurprisingly seen as major favorites by oddsmakers. Under normal circumstances, the Oilers would be seen as the better team, but the gap widens when you throw in Ottawa's slump and the fact that this game is being played in Edmonton.

I'm a big fan of Edmonton in this matchup, but the potential payout on the moneyline is understandably low. For that reason, I'm recommending taking the Oilers on the puck line at +1.5.

It's still taking on extra risk, but the increase in the potential reward is great enough to make it worth it in my mind.

Pick: Oilers Puck Line +104 (Play to -105)

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