NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Senators vs Oilers (Saturday, January 6)
Lawrence Scott/Getty Images. Pictured: Edmonton Oilers new coach Kris Knoblauch
Senators vs. Oilers Odds
| Senators Odds | +168 |
| Oilers Odds | -205 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -162 / +132 |
A typically busy NHL Saturday slate concludes with an inter-conference showdown between two Canadian clubs, and this is my look at Ottawa Senators vs. Edmonton Oilers on Saturday, Jan. 6 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The scorching Oilers have gone 14-3-0 since Nov. 24 to move back into the Western Conference playoff picture.
They host a struggling Ottawa Senators side that has failed to generate any momentum this season. Ottawa is anchored to the bottom of the Atlantic Division standings, and they've dropped the first two contests of a four-game Western Conference roadie.
Things won't get any easier for the Sens as they try to take down one of the best analytics teams in the league – one that's enjoying its finest stretch of the season.
Ottawa's season couldn't be going much worse.
The Senators were widely expected to take a significant step forward in their development this season and compete with some of the powerhouses in the division.
Instead, they've regressed from last year's standards, putting up a worse points percentage and worse analytics than they had in the entirety of 2022-23.
The Senators are mired in one of their worst stretches of the campaign, leaving no end in sight for when they may be able to turn things around.
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Jacque Martin took over behind the bench for the recently fired D.J. Smith, and early returns are sub-optimal: The Sens have three wins in eight games since Martin stepped in while precipitating some disastrous advanced metrics.
Over that stretch, Ottawa has been outplayed in all but one of those eight games, watching their expected goals-for rating erode. The Senators' benchmark has bottomed out to 42.9% under Martin's tutelage, dragging their season-long rating down to 47.1%.
The coaching change hasn't yielded the improved results Ottawa's brass was hoping for. The Sens are holding steady with their offensive production, but their defensive structure has imploded.
All but one opponent has exceeded 10 high-danger chances across the Senators' last eight games, with a rolling average of 11.8 per game. Predictably, that correlates with a decreased save percentage, falling to 89.2% at 5-on-5 and 88.1% overall.
There are parallels between Edmonton's and Ottawa's seasons. The Oilers were the first club to move on from their head coach after axing Jay Woodcroft in favor of Kris Knoblauch.
The first few games weren't promising, but the Oil quickly turned a corner under their new bench boss.
Since Knoblauch took over, Edmonton's expected goals-for percentage has moved to 57.6%, tops in the show. That improvement is reflected on both ends of the ice with the Oilers getting the best of their opponents in the attacking and defending zones.
More importantly, that improved defensive standard is making a difference in goaltending metrics.
Over their last 22 games, the Oilers are limiting opponents to an average of 8.5 high-danger and 20.1 scoring chances. They've tightened that standard even more over their recent sample, with their last seven opponents averaging 8.1 and 18.0 opportunities, respectively.
Finally, that's paying dividends for Oilers' netminders with Edmonton's goalies combining for a 92.5% save percentage across that sample.
However, we're also starting to see a slowed offensive attack from Edmonton. The Oilers have been held to below-average high-danger chances in four of their past five, with fewer scoring opportunities in three of five.
It might not yet be reflected in their output, but we're expecting offensive regression as output balances with limited production over their coming games.
Senators vs. Oilers
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Senators followed the Oilers' lead with their coaching change – albeit to substantially different results.
Edmonton's metrics improved across the board after they brought in a new head coach, eventually leading to improved on-ice results. Conversely, Ottawa's regime change made a bad situation worse.
The moneyline price on the Oilers is hovering around expected. Still, there may be an advantage in backing the home side.
However, our preferred play is betting this game's total to stay under.
The Senators don't generate many offensive chances, and Edmonton plays a stifling defensive brand of hockey. Moreover, we've seen diminished production from the Oilers, which indicates slowing output.
FanDuel's big plus-money on Under 6.5 is worth the investment, though you can also play the Under 7 that's widely available in the -110 range.
Pick: Under 6.5 (+136 at FanDuel)
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