NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Stars vs Bruins (Monday, February 19)

NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Stars vs Bruins (Monday, February 19) article feature image

(Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images). Pictured: Matt Duchene.

Stars vs. Bruins Odds

Monday, Feb. 19
1 p.m. ET
Stars Odds+110
Bruins Odds-130
Over / Under
-105o / -115u
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.

Here's everything you need to know about the Dallas Stars vs. Boston Bruins on Monday, February 19 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.

Boston has won each of the past three meetings between these two teams. Will it take care of business once again, or can Dallas pull off the road upset?

Let's dig into the NHL odds and make a Stars vs. Bruins prediction.

Dallas Stars

Dallas enters this game in great form, winning seven of its past nine games. There are multiple factors for this recent uptick in production.

First, the offense has been on fire. Over those nine outings, the Stars are averaging 4.3 goals scored per game.

On the season, Dallas now ranks first in goals scored per game, 16th in shots on goal per game and second in shooting percentage. Another factor for this recent success is goaltender Jake Oettinger, who is slated to guard the cage for the Stars on Monday.

Over his past 11 starts, Oettinger is 9-1-1 with a .911 SV% and 2.83 GAA. Making his job easier is the fact that the defense in front of him prevents high-danger scoring chances at an elite level.

At 5-on-5, Dallas ranks fourth in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). Special teams should also not be an issue, given that it ranks first in penalty minutes taken per game and eighth in penalty-kill percentage.

Boston Bruins

On the other hand, Boston has major difficulties staying out of the box, ranking 24th in penalty minutes taken per game. It also ranks lower than Dallas in penalty-kill percentage and shots on goal allowed per game.

The Bruins are also worse than the Stars analytically. At 5-on-5, the former ranks lower in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60), xGA/60 and expected goal differential per 60 minutes.

Goaltender Linus Ullmark is expected to start between the pipes for Boston, and the reigning Vezina Trophy winner has once again put together a strong campaign. With that said, the Bruins have lost in each of his past two starts.

Ullmark has posted a fade-worthy .883 SV% and 3.26 GAA over that stretch. He has also lost in four of his seven career starts against Dallas.

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Stars vs. Bruins

Betting Pick & Prediction

There are multiple reasons why the Bruins are laying -130 in this contest. They are on home ice, have fared well against Dallas over the past couple of seasons and Ullmark is in net.

With that said, I am not sure those factors are worth more than the fact that the Stars rank higher in all of the following categories: goals scored per game, shots on goal per game, shooting percentage, faceoff percentage, shots on goal allowed per game, penalty-kill percentage and penalty minutes taken per game.

Dallas is undoubtedly the better team analytically as well, ranking higher in xGF/60, xGA/60 and expected goal differential per 60 minutes (all at 5-on-5).

Pick: Stars ML (+110 at bet365 | Play to +105)

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