Stars vs Oilers Game 4 Prediction: NHL Odds, Preview, Pick (Wednesday, May 29)
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Stars vs. Oilers Game 4 Prediction
| Stars Odds | +115 |
| Oilers Odds | -135 |
| Over / Under | 6 +100 / -120 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Stars vs Oilers odds for Game 4 on Wednesday, May 29 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
After dropping Game 1 of the Western Conference Final in double overtime, Dallas has won two straight contests, putting the pressure on the Oilers to tie the series at home Wednesday or face a potential elimination game Friday in Dallas.
Let's examine each team's chances of claiming Game 4 and then offer a Stars vs. Oilers prediction for tonight.
Dallas has won the past two contests in this series, but neither victory was decisive. In fact, the xG for Game 2 was 3.31-3.16 in favor of Edmonton, despite the final score being 3-1 for Dallas. Then Edmonton had a 3.9-2.92 edge in xG for Game 3, but still lost 5-3. That suggests goaltending has been a key factor in this series and that it has worked in Dallas' favor, which isn't surprising.
Both of these squads were fairly even offensively in the regular season with Dallas scoring 3.59 goals per game to Edmonton's 3.56. Sure, the Oilers have a clear edge in raw star power, but Dallas makes up for that by having more offensive depth. Dallas had eight players supply at least 20 goals in the regular season compared to the Oilers' five.
To an extent, that wealth of secondary scoring has been a help for the Stars in this series. Five of Edmonton's seven goals in the Western Conference Final have been scored by Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman and Leon Draisaitl. On Dallas' side, Jason Robertson did power the attack in Game 3 with his hat trick, but six other Stars have contributed at least one goal in the Western Conference Final.
So, Dallas has a shot to match Edmonton on offense, but the Oilers aren't necessarily well-positioned to compete with Dallas between the pipes. Jake Oettinger is a superb goaltender who has stopped 90-of-97 shots (.928 save percentage) against Edmonton's high-powered assault in the playoffs.
He's why Dallas is leading this series, and if Dallas ends up taking a 3-1 series lead, there's a good chance Oettinger will have played an important role in that.
Oettinger is only half the story when it comes to Dallas' goaltending advantage. The other factor is Stuart Skinner, who is fairly unpredictable.
The Oilers' netminder has actually had some pretty strong showings in this series, but you'd be left wanting more after evaluating Skinner's complete postseason resume. The 25-year-old has an .885 save percentage through 13 playoff contests this year, and he finished the 2023 postseason with a similarly bad .883 save percentage across 12 games.
To put that into context, of every goaltender who has participated in at least 25 playoff games, Skinner's .884 career save percentage is the 14th worst out of 119 eligible netminders.
You can't throw this at the feet of Edmonton's defensemen either. The Oilers' xGA/60 in the 2024 playoffs ranks fifth at 2.71, which suggests the defense in front of Skinner has been great. The goaltender just hasn't been able to fulfill his end of the bargain with any regularity. So, if Edmonton has one glaring weakness, it's Skinner. But, the Oilers have already named him as their Game 4 starter.
To be fair, for as unreliable as he's been, Skinner has had strong stretches. He stopped 31-of-33 shots in Edmonton's Game 1 victory, and it's hard to blame him for the Game 2 loss when Edmonton managed just one goal.
At the same time, the fact that the Oilers are down 2-1 in a series where Skinner has been mostly okay is a little concerning. If he reverts closer toward his average – as he arguably did in Game 3 – then the moderate gap in goaltending will become a chasm.
If Edmonton wants to come out ahead in this series, it'll likely need more from Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Evander Kane. Those three have combined for just a goal and an assist in this series, so getting them going should be a key focus.
Stars vs. Oilers
Betting Pick & Prediction
With this contest set to be played in Edmonton, the Oilers are priced as mild favorites on the moneyline. However, the Oilers have a modest 4-3 record at home. Meanwhile, Dallas is a strong road team that posted the league's best away record in the regular season (26-10-5) and has continued that trend in the playoffs (6-1).
As a result, I don't see the home-ice advantage as much of a reason to side with Edmonton. I'm also worried about Skinner beginning another cold stretch after a somewhat rough performance in Game 3.
For those reasons, I recommend taking advantage of Dallas' perceived underdog status and chasing the higher potential return of backing the Stars on the moneyline.
Pick: Dallas Stars Moneyline (+115 at BetMGM) | Play to +105
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