NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Stars vs Sabres (Tuesday, February 6)
(Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images). Pictured: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen.
Stars vs. Sabres Odds
| Stars Odds | -162 |
| Sabres Odds | +134 |
| Total | 6.5 -110o / -110u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Dallas Stars vs. Buffalo Sabres on Tuesday, Feb. 6 — our expert NHL prediction and preview.
This matchup has played evenly over the past few years, with both teams claiming three wins over the past six meetings. Can Buffalo pull off the upset Tuesday evening?
Let's dig into the NHL odds and make a Stars vs. Sabres prediction and pick.
The Stars are undoubtedly the better team in this matchup and I still like them to lift the Cup by the end of the campaign, but -166 is just a bit too long in this spot.
First, Dallas is certainly a beatable team on the road, losing nine of its 23 games away from the American Airlines Center. Second, goaltender Jake Oettinger is slated to start between the pipes. Oettinger has not seen the puck well recently, posting a .873 SV% and 3.94 GAA over his past four starts.
This lack of success could continue against the Sabres, a team Oettinger possesses a .870 SV% against over his past two starts. If he lets in 4+ goals once again, then it will likely be a difficult game for the Stars as they are primed for offensive regression.
This season, Dallas ranks third in goals scored per game but 13th in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5. This disparity exists because the Stars are shooting at the second-best clip in the league while not generating as many high-danger scoring chances, which is a recipe for offensive regression.
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Dallas' offensive regression could come to fruition against Buffalo, or at least goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who is slated to guard the cage Tuesday evening. Luukkonen has put together a strong campaign, posting a 12-11-2 record with a .909 SV% and 2.61 GAA.
In opposite fashion to Oettinger, Luukkonen has been playing as one of the netminders in hockey of late, allowing two or fewer goals in seven of his past nine starts. Over that stretch, he is 6-3 with a commanding .940 SV% and 1.57 GAA.
Meanwhile, Luukkonen could get plenty of goal support as the Sabres are due for positive regression on offense. This season, they rank 18th in goals scored per game but 10th in xGF/60 at 5-on-5. It's the opposite situation than the Stars, since Buffalo is shooting at a mere 9.5% clip, good for 24th in the league.
Stars vs. Sabres
Betting Pick & Prediction
Both teams are coming off a long layoff and the Sabres boast home-ice advantage, which I believe makes them a live underdog when combined with the fact that Luukkonen has played much better than Oettinger while the offenses are due for regression in opposite directions.
We are particularly catching a great price on Buffalo at +138 via FanDuel, a line that is eight-to-13 cents longer than the rest of the market at the time of writing. I would play this number up to +130.
Pick: Sabres Moneyline (+138 at FanDuel | Play to +130)
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