Top NHL Prop Bets for Monday: Mitch Marner Over/Under 2.5 Total Shots on Goal?
Tom Szczerbowski, USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mitch Marner
There are only two games on Monday’s slate, but we still have a few opportunities to look for exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool at FantasyLabs, as well as the Bet Labs database.
Here are two props I’m eyeing for Monday night, with the first puck drop at 7 p.m. ET.
Maple Leafs W Mitch Marner
The pick: Under 2.5 shots on goal (+120)
Marner’s prop falls in line with his long-term average of 2.51 shots per game over the past year, but it’s a relatively tough volume-based matchup against a Flames team that has allowed the fewest Corsi against on the slate over the past month. Taking a shot at +120 here seems reasonable on a small two-game slate.
Wild G Devan Dubnyk
The pick: Under 27.5 total saves (-105)
Normally, I tend to be long on saves for Wild goaltenders this year. They give up a ton of shots and are below-average in goals against. I think today could shape up as a unique situation against the former.
In models, our proprietary save-prediction metric has Dubnyk for (by far) the fewest saves on Monday’s slate (25.9), which makes sense considering that the Canucks own the lowest Corsi for expectation by an equally large margin. Vancouver just doesn’t shoot, second-fewest shots per game (25.7) this year.