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NHL Player Props Odds, Expert Picks: Best Bets for Dougie Hamilton, Nathan MacKinnon, More (Saturday, April 22)

NHL Player Props Odds, Expert Picks: Best Bets for Dougie Hamilton, Nathan MacKinnon, More (Saturday, April 22) article feature image
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Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: New Jersey Devils defenseman Dougie Hamilton

Tonight’s slate of Game 3 matchups offers an array of options for NHL player props, and we’ve targeted four with attractive odds.

Let’s dig into those props, which include three of tonight’s four Stanley Cup Playoffs games.

Our targets include Dougie Hamilton and Nathan MacKinnon, among others.

NHL Player Props for Saturday, April 22


Kyle Connor Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-102)

Team vs. TeamGolden Knights vs. Jets
Puck Drop4 p.m. ET
Best LineFanDuel
Through the opening two games of this series, Kyle Connor has put up 13 shots on goal. That lofty total has come from a ridiculous 19 attempts at goal, with 16 unblocked shot attempts.
He has generated a wealth of shots on the Jets’ man advantage, but he has also been very noticeable at even strength on a line with Pierre-Luc Dubois and Mark Scheifele.
In 26.5 minutes together, Connor, Dubois and Scheifele have played to a 61.8% xG rating. Most importantly for this prop, they have generated a ton of offensive attempts, leading to a 4.75 xGoals per 60 rating.
The Jets top unit should also draw slightly better matchups today at home, owning the advantage of last change.
We see it all the time when prominent shooters settle into a matchup and cash their shot prop total night after night in the playoffs. While watching these games, it seems like that could be the case with Connor in this series with the Knights.
+102 is too good of a number to pass up, and I am definitely going to back this prop in game four as well barring significant change in the price.

Pick: Kyle Connor over 3.5 SOG (-102)

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Mark Scheifele Any Time Goalscorer (+160)

Team vs. TeamGolden Knights vs. Jets
Puck Drop4 p.m. ET
Best LineFanDuel

As noted before, Scheifele, Connor and Dubois are generating chances at an alarmingly high rate so far in this series. They will get better matchups at even strength at home with last change, and I believe a case can be made for any of the trio to score a goal.

So, +188 for Scheifele is my favorite look of the bunch. He netted 42 goals in 81 regular season games, and he scored at least one goal in 29 of those contests.

Pick: Mark Scheifele Any Time Goalscorer (+160)


Dougie Hamilton Over 2.5 Shots On Goal (-150)

Team vs. TeamDevils vs. Rangers
Puck Drop8 p.m. ET
Best LineBet365

New Jersey has looked outmatched in the first two games of the series and is deservedly in a two-game hole. Dougie Hamilton has been quite poor and was shockingly bad in Game 2 in particular.

Whether or not Hamilton bounces back defensively remains to be seen, but I think it’s a buy-low spot in the shot prop market. At times this season, Hamilton has even been priced below -120 to record four shots, and I think this number is too much of an over-adjustment to a two-game sample.

Hamilton has still poured 14 shot attempts in two games in which he and the Devils did not control nearly as much of the play as usual.

Tonight is essentially do or die for the Devils, and he is still their clear No. 1 defender. If he brings a better game, we will see him receive a ton of time on ice from coach Lindy Ruff.

New Jersey’s top power-play unit has had a notably tough time gaining the zone and getting set up. Full credit to the Rangers doing a great job on the penalty kill, but still – with the likes of Jasper Bratt and Jack Hughes to help with zone entries – New Jersey should be able to figure it out to an extent.  If New Jersey’s power play can run a little smoother than it has in Games 1 and 2, it would also boost our chances.

Playing four shots on goal at +168 is another option for those who are not interested in the more modest payout offered by 2.5. I will note, however, that -150 for 2.5 actually holds more value. (In short, the chances he hits three compared to four project to be wide enough that grabbing the extra payout is not mathematically sound.)


Nathan MacKinnon Over 4.5 Shots On Goal (-150)

Team vs. TeamAvalanche vs. Kraken
Puck Drop10 p.m. ET
Best LineBet365

Nathan MacKinnon continues to pour shots on goal at an absurd rate this postseason. He has 15 shots in the first two matchups coming from 22 attempts on goal. That adds up to 30.25 shot attempts per 60.

MacKinnon has now averaged 5.99 shots per game in the 21 playoff games since the start of last year’s run. He has cashed the “over 4.5” in 16 of those 21 games (76%).

MacKinnon deserves to be considered the second-best player alive at this moment. He continues to find another gear in the postseason and is playing at an incredible level so far in this series.

The fact that Seattle is hanging step for step with Colorado in this series – and made Games 1 and 2 very competitive – is excellent for this prop. The Kraken are winning lots of matchups when the Avs’ superstars are not on the ice, and it seems that coach Jared Bednar will continue to be forced into skating MacKinnon heavy minutes. He has played 43:38 in the first two games of the series.

The -150 line is again a modest payout. But if this bet is cashing 70% of the time, our eventual value at -150 is amazing, and there is a valid case that 70% is a realistic projection on this prop.

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