Panthers vs. Lightning Odds & Picks: Monday’s Betting Value on Tampa Bay

Panthers vs. Lightning Odds & Picks: Monday’s Betting Value on Tampa Bay article feature image

Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images. Pictured: Andrei Vasilevskiy.

  • It's Game 4 of what's been a one-sided series between the Florida Panthers and the Tampa Bay Lightning.
  • Will the Lightning finish the sweep or will the Panthers extend the series?
  • Jacob McKenna breaks down the game and shares his best bet below.

Panthers vs. Lightning Game 4 Odds

Panthers Odds+105
Lightning Odds-125
Over/Under6 (-125 / +105)
Time7 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

The Tampa Bay Lightning and the Florida Panthers will go head-to-head on Monday for what will be their second game in two days.

Tampa Bay has taken complete control of this series with a commanding 3-0 lead and is looking to close it out on home ice.

Will that be the case, or will Florida find some gas at the bottom of the tank and grab its first win of the series with its back against the wall?

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Florida Panthers

The Florida Panthers offense was hands down one of the best scoring attacks in the NHL during the regular season. We saw glimpses of that in Round 1 as well, but Round 2 has been a completely different story.

Through three games in this series, Florida has scored just three total goals and looks out of sync offensively. What's crazy is that the Panthers are getting off plenty of shots, averaging 35 shots on goal per game, and rank second in goals scored in 5-on-5 situations this postseason.

However, they cannot seem to find many ways to get pucks past Andrei Vasilevskiy, which is a major problem because the Panthers are struggling to keep pucks in front of them on the defensive end.

As previously mentioned, Florida has scored just three goals in this series, but has surrendered 11 to the Lightning. The Panthers lost Game 1 by a score of 4-1, Game 2 by a score of 2-1 and Game 3 by a score of 5-1.

This was a team that was right in the middle of the pack in Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) in 5-on-5 during the regular season with 2.49, but since the postseason began that number has risen to 2.70. Florida appears to have become more vulnerable on the defensive end and it will need to give Sergei Bobrovsky some more help while he's in net if it wants to extend this series.

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Tampa Bay Lightning

The back-to-back champions may not have been the favorites to win it all at the start of the postseason, but Tampa Bay has shown the world it is more than capable of winning the title for the third year in a row.

The Lightning's success starts in net, a place where Andrei Vasilevskiy has shined bright. Going back to Tampa Bay's Game 7 matchup against Toronto, Vasilevskiy has an SV% of .971. He's also generated 6.0 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) for the entire postseason. He has simply shut down any chances his opponents have of scoring and has clearly been the Tampa's best player in this series.

However, Vasilevskiy is not the only star on this team as the Lightning have had several guys step up when it matters most.

Nikita Kucherov only played in 47 games during the regular season, but he finished third on the Lightning in points with 69 and that momentum has carried over to the postseason. Kucherov leads the Lightning in postseason points with 11, collecting three goals and eight assists across nine games.

In addition, Ross Colton and Steven Stamkos have made some great contributions. Colton leads this team in playoff goals with five and Stamkos, while not as active as he usually is, scored two goals in Game 3. He may have found his touch once again.

This is a very deep team with very few holes and, as we have seen so far, they are going to be an extremely tough team to beat in a best-of-seven series.

Panthers vs. Lightning Pick

I have yet to see anything that says Florida is capable of taking the Lightning down, which is why I think Tampa Bay closes this series out on home ice.

Florida is clearly generating plenty of scoring chances, but Vasilevskiy has proven to be the stronger force in net and I think that is likely to continue.

I personally thought this was going to be a six- or seven-game series, but it looks like the Panthers have no answers for the Lightning. I think getting Tampa Bay on the moneyline at -120 is great value.

Pick: Lightning ML (-120)

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