Flames vs. Stars Odds, Picks, Predictions: There’s Value On This Game 6 Over (May 13)

Flames vs. Stars Odds

It’s win or go home for the Dallas Stars, as they host the Calgary Flames in a critical Game 6 matchup. Goaltending has reigned supreme all series as each game has been very low scoring.

Will we see an offensive splurge in Game 6? Or will the goaltenders continue to shut down every puck in their path?

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Calgary Flames

Many believe this Flames team can be the team to end the Canadian Stanley Cup drought. They’re one of the deeper teams and featured elite scoring throughout the season. The goaltending from Dallas has stifled Calgary for the most part, but it’s hard to ignore the overall talent. Johnny Gaudreau is averaging a point per game, while Elias Lindholm has been providing a good amount of scoring. Calgary will need more out of Matthew Tkachuk and Andrew Mangiapane, who scored 42 goals and 35 goals this season respectively. 

Calgary has dominated on the offensive end all series, especially in the past three games. They put up at least 30 shots and while they didn’t score as much as they wanted, they still won two of three. Their expected goals rate is fourth best at 58.91 xGF%, but the power play needs to be better. After scoring at a near 23% clip, they’ve only converted on two power plays (19 attempts).

The Flames have been clicking on all cylinders, but Jacob Markstrom has been a real difference maker. Markstrom has been a brick wall all series, posting an eye-popping .952 SV% and a +4.3 GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected).

Dallas Stars

For the Stars, the talent is certainly there, but the production is not as Joe Pavelski has managed to be the only one consistently producing. He's racked up four points in five games, while the rest of the team is at two or below. Jason Robertson hasn’t given much after a breakout season, nor has Roope Hintz or veteran Tyler Seguin. 

It hasn’t been easy on Dallas’ end, that’s for sure. The Stars haven’t played terribly, but it’s clear they are the inferior team. The Stars have struggled to control play and with a strong defensive team like the Flames, you can imagine why. Dallas' expected goals rate is 13th among playoff teams at a 41.09 xGF%. With a man advantage, it hasn’t been much better, as they’ve only converted twice out of 20 attempts.

While Markstrom is dominating on one end, Jake Oettinger is doing his best to steal this series from the Flames. The former 1st-round pick is having himself a coming out party and showing the hockey world he’s a legit netminder. Currently he’s posting an insane .956 SV% over 180 shots as well as a +6.6 GSAx. It surely seems Dallas has found its goalie of the future.

Flames vs. Stars Pick

It’s certainly been a tricky series to predict. I keep waiting for the shoe to drop for Jake Oettinger and he keeps stealing the show. Calgary was one of the top offensive teams all season, including three 40-goal scorers and one 30 goal scorer. However, it seems as if Otters are impervious to Flames because Oettinger has shut them down.

This series has uncharacteristically reached over 5.5 goals once and that was only because an empty net goal was scored with one second left. It hasn’t been easy for players to light the lamp. Goaltending has been at a premium and it doesn’t look like it’ll stop.

I’m not particularly crazy about the prices here, but I think the over is tantalizing at +110 since both goalies have been tested for five straight games. While I like the Flames to win and advance to the next round, picking them at -165 doesn’t give you the best bang for your buck.

Ultimately, I’m leaning with the over here. There’s too much talent on both sides and although the goaltending has been superb, one would have to imagine they’re due for a clunker.

Pick: Over 5.5 (+110)