NHL Playoffs Odds, Picks, Predictions: 4 Player Props to Target (May 7)
Abbie Parr/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Andrew Mangiapane.
- Saturday's NHL slate has been packed and with two games left, Nick Martin has some props to bet.
- Martin sees value in players like Andrew Mangiapane and Jake Guentzel ahead of Flames vs. Stars and Penguins vs. Rangers.
- Check out all of his top NHL player props for Saturday below.
Saturday’s NHL slate features plenty of action, including Rangers vs. Penguins and Flames vs. Stars to round out the action when the sun goes down.
Let’s dive into my three favorite player props on Saturday’s NHL slate and why I’m seeing value in these plays.
Mikko Rantanen Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-175 | Play 2.5 to -185)
For those with the option, I would ideally be looking to play the over 3.5 at a better number, which is available on several sites. DraftKings, FanDuel, and bet365 have set the line at 2.5 for -175, which is still very playable.
It’s frustrating to me, as I had earmarked this as a spot to pick while watching Game 1, and I hope most can find the over 3.5 at plus-money as opposed to this heavily-juiced line.
Regardless, each line holds value. Rantanen is a very proven scorer and has attempted five shots in each contest this series. This is a different take than usual because he’s been unprofitable in hitting this number on average, but that’s not likely to continue.
At some point, my belief is Nashville needs to start pressing higher up on Cale Makar and MacKinnon on the penalty kill, and when we see that, Makar should be sliding more pucks to Rantanen on the other side as opposed to trying to tee up MacKinnon.
Beyond that, MacKinnon and Rantanen’s unit is generating so much at 5-on-5, that it’s simply unlikely that a proven goal-scorer won’t end up having more looks fall to him in situations where shooting is the correct play.
A sprinkle on Rantanen to score at +120 is also a solid option as well.
He’s going to get some high-quality looks, and I think today could be the day the grade-A power play looks fall to his excellent one-timer.
Cale Makar Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-165 | Play 2.5 to -175)
This is a far more clear and obvious play than the Rantanen angle. Makar had 23 shot attempts in Game 2 with 12 shots on net, including the overtime winner.
Colorado will still likely control far more of the play altogether in Nashville, which will come in large part from Makar’s dominance.
As was the case with Rantanen, it looks like some books are going with 2.5 and a heavily-juiced over.
I would still prefer over 3.5 at a better number if you can get that, especially because pushing a -165 line isn’t very fun. But ultimately, this should shake out to the same EV.
Jake Guentzel Over 3.5 (+105 | Play 3.5 to -105)
Pittsburgh’s top unit gave the Rangers fits again in Game 2, and altogether, the trio of Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby and Guentzel has generated 62 shot attempts in a little over eight periods of play in this series.
It would be very surprising to not see this line control more of the play again today, especially with the Penguins now holding last change on home ice.
Guentzel’s a pure goalscorer and is extremely savvy at finding pockets of space where Crosby and Rust will find him.
Still getting a plus number on this after six in Game 2 and eight in Game 1 (with five prior to overtime) is excellent, as the logic as to why he has taken so many shots is blatantly clear and the high numbers don’t seem to simply be anomalies.
Andrew Mangiapane Anytime Goal +200
Since that batch of plays is a little dull, let’s mix in a fun one for a smaller play.
Mangiapane was an absolute killer on the road this season, with 27 road goals and 35 total. He paced Calgary with 0.42 expected goals last game, and we could see something similar in Dallas.
Miro Heiskanen was arguably the league’s very best defensive defender this season, and Rick Bowness will surely stick his and Suter’s unit on the Flames’ spectacular top trio as much as possible.
Mangiapane is a smaller player but has an unreal competitive level and is very capable of finding the kind of dirty goals that will be common with how this series is being played.
The fact that I believe this game will likely be of the lower-scoring variety is a knock on this play, but I’ll live with that and look for Mangiapane to find his first goal of the postseason.
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