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This is Daily Dangles, a column featuring our top expert’s NHL picks, predictions, and best bets.
Every day, one of our experts will provide you with some of the sharpest, high-value betting analysis on what the NHL schedule offers us.
For Thursday, November 12, Nick Martin has us covered.
NHL Picks, Predictions Tonight
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- Ottawa Senators Moneyline (+100, DraftKings; Play to -105)
- Ryan Leonard Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+175, BetMGM)
- Islanders vs Kings Regulation Tie (+310, FanDuel; Play to +300)
Avalanche vs Senators Pick
Senators head coach Travis Green is currently priced as the third favorite to win the Jack Adams Award, and based on Ottawa's well-organized play at even strength, that seems entirely reasonable to me. The Senators have controlled 55.75% of the expected goals over their last ten games and have managed to tread water effectively despite the absence of number-one goaltender Linus Ullmark, who remains on the IR.
We were fortunate to cash our bets on the Washington Capitals as slight underdogs on Tuesday evening, as the Senators were utterly dominant and prevented a deep Capitals attack from generating next to anything at even strength after Samuel Ersson let in a cheapie in the first minute of the game.
With Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot both healthy, the makeup of Ottawa's defensive core is excellent. The unit offers an ideal blend of puck-moving ability, size, and mobility and has been the driving force behind the Senators' underrated play over the past season and a quarter.
Linus Ullmark is expected to return to the lineup for this matchup and has been excellent thus far this season, posting a 7-1-0 record with a .945 save percentage. There's obviously some added volatility with a goaltender returning from a three-week absence, but the Senators should be capable of producing strong results on most nights when they receive even league-average goaltending.
Fading the Avalanche is scary, as on paper they still appear to have the second-best roster in the NHL and are worthy of their status as the consensus second favorite to win the Cup based on where they should trend long-term.
Realistically, though, playing your best hockey in November offers very little reward in the NHL, something Colorado is well familiar with after last season.
For now, this feels like a team that knows it can afford to go through the motions to some extent, and it faces a group that has looked really sharp thus far in the midst of a dogfight in the Atlantic Division.
And then the last reason we like the Senators here as slight home underdogs is the possibility of Scott Wedgewood starting in goal for Colorado, who has really struggled out of the gates to start the year. Mackenzie Blackwood has made three straight starts, so it seems logical to expect Wedgewood to get another opportunity to right the ship.
Wedgewood obviously can perform at a higher level than we've seen thus far, but it's encouraging that a poor showing from him could provide another path to cashing this bet, given that Ottawa also looks capable of simply outplaying Colorado outright at this point.
Pick: Ottawa Senators Moneyline (+100, DraftKings; Play to -105)
Capitals vs Devils Pick
Ryan Leonard leads the Capitals in shots on goal per 60 (11.16) and shot attempts per 60 (23.64) by fairly considerable margins. However, on a team loaded with offensive depth, he's averaged just over 14 minutes of ice time per game. Leonard has consistently looked like one of Washington's most dynamic forwards, though, and should continue to force head coach Spencer Carbery's hand into awarding the former seventh-overall pick a larger role.
In a game where the Capitals were being entirely dominated by the Senators, Carbery pivoted to a combination of Leonard, Dylan Strome and Jordan Kyrou. Whether that holds or not remains to be seen, but the adjustment did pay dividends, and regardless, it feels as though it's becoming an understanding that Leonard is a top option in trailing game scripts.
On top of that, Carbery continues to split ice time between his two power-play units much more evenly, which is also good news for Leonard, who is the primary shooter on the second unit. The second unit, quarterbacked by rookie sensation Cole Hutson, has generally looked more threatening than the top unit, and the trend of an equal share seems likely to continue.
Leonard has recorded three shots on goal in five of the last seven games, so even if he is not awarded more minutes in the near future, prices in the +170 range still look appealing. The Devils are an elite defensive team, but that is compensated by the +185 price tag.
Pick: Ryan Leonard Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+175, BetMGM)
Islanders vs Kings Pick
We outlined this same bet when these sides met on Long Island on October 22, a matchup the Islanders ultimately lost in overtime. Thursday's rematch is once again priced at +310 to require extra time, and that number makes running it back look quite appealing.
With a larger sample of play to evaluate, most of the points we outlined on October 22 continue to hold true, and I'm not sure there's a better matchup to target the tie than when these two teams meet. Neither side possesses the offensive upside to blow opponents out of the water very often, and both continue to spend plenty of time grinding out points in tightly contested matchups.
Five of the Islanders' last eight games have required overtime. Both teams should bring a high level of urgency to this matchup as they look to snap their respective losing skids, and I don't expect either side to significantly outplay the other in this matchup.
It always takes a little luck to get regulation tie bets home, but this game seems to have all the makings of a closely contested slog, and at +310 there looks to be value in targeting that to mean the game requires overtime.
Pick: Game to Require Overtime (3-Way Tie) (+310, FanDuel; Play to +300)
