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This is Daily Dangles, a column featuring our top expert’s NHL picks, predictions, and best bets.
Every day, one of our experts will provide you with some of the sharpest, high-value betting analysis on what the NHL schedule offers us.
For Tuesday, November 3, Nick Martin has us covered.
NHL Picks, Predictions Tonight
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- Dallas Stars vs Washington Capitals Over 5.5 -120 (FanDuel, Play to -130)
- Philadelphia Flyers Moneyline +147 (FanDuel, Play to +140)
- Anaheim Ducks Moneyline -152 (FanDuel, Play to -157)
Stars vs Capitals Pick
The Dallas Stars have been a pure under team so far this season, as their first 14 matchups have averaged just 4.92 combined goals. Jake Oettinger has been fantastic in goal, while a lineup with a fair share of offensive talent has converted chances at the seventh-lowest rate in the NHL.
While the way that the average Stars' matchup has played out thus far does make a case for the under, a total of 5.5 still looks too low given their opponent.
The Capitals entered the season following plenty of roster turnover, and as expected, have looked much more competent offensively than they have throughout the majority of head coach Spencer Carbery's tenure with the team. However, they have not looked overly organized defensively and have allowed 3.66 xGA/60.
The Caps have fairly consistently needed to lean on their high-end finishing threats to score their way out of trouble. They offer some legitimate skill on each of their four units, but they have rarely offered an overly clean defensive game. While I think that Washington has the offensive ability to score versus a stingy Stars side, Dallas' offensive upside currently seems to be underrated, and a total of 5.5 looks too low for Tuesday's matchup.
Pick: Over 5.5 Goals (-120, FanDuel)
Flyers vs Wild Pick
The Flyers went 18-7-1 following the Olympic break last season and posted an NHL-best 2.26 xGA/60 over that span. While they may have overachieved down the stretch, the majority of the roster remains intact, and the team's true ability likely falls somewhere between what we saw during the final third of last season and what we've seen so far this year.
The Flyers are 3-1-1 throughout their last four home games, with underdog wins over the Colorado Avalanche, Utah Mammoth and Ottawa Senators. At their best, their stingy defensive play provides the ability to hang around versus any team, and I think we will see Philadelphia make Tuesday's matchup surprisingly competitive.
The Wild have been excellent so far, but looking at the roster with Brock Faber on the sidelines, I'm not sold that they are truly this good. Jesper Wallstedt's incredible play has been a huge part of the story, but it wouldn't surprise me if he rests in favor of Calvin Pickard in this matchup, given that Wallstedt has started eight of the last nine games.
Even if Wallstedt plays a price of +147 looks long enough to ride with the Flyers, but by betting now we also leave ourselves the chance to luck into a Pickard start and gain some significant value.
Pick: Flyers ML (+147, FanDuel)
Ducks vs Canucks Pick
In a highly similar fashion to the San Jose Sharks, the exciting young Ducks felt to be overrated entering the year. Their defensive core offers some major question marks, while the overall depth of the roster beyond their combination of elite young talents looked quite unconvincing.
Some of those flaws were on display when the Ducks offered a shocking collapse versus the Canucks last Thursday, as they blew a three-goal lead in the final ten minutes of the third period. Despite Anaheim's concerns, a price of -150 looks playable as they look for redemption versus the NHL's clear-cut worst team.
The Canucks hold a 37.66% expected goal share, which is the worst mark in the NHL by a considerable margin. While Manny Malhotra feels like an upgrade as head coach from last year, the roster offers very little proven NHL talent.
Hopefully we will see Kevin Lankinen get the nod in goal, as he has served as the backup in four straight contests. But if it is Leevi Merilainen, a price of -152 still looks fine, and I'd back the Ducks down to -157.
Pick: Ducks ML (-152, FanDuel)
