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Top NHL Prop Bets for Wednesday: Brad Marchand Over/Under 2.5 Shots on Goal?

Oct 17, 2018 4:48 PM EDT

Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Boston Bruins left wing Brad Marchand (63).

  • There are two NHL player props that stand out on Wednesday night's slate of games.
  • Blues Goaltender Jake Allen's prop is set at 29 saves.
  • Bruins Left Wing Brad Marchand's prop is set at 2.5 shots on goal.

There are only four games on Wednesday’s slate, but we still have plenty of opportunities to look for exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool at FantasyLabs, as well as the Bet Labs database.

Here are two props I’m eyeing tonight, with the first puck drop at 7 p.m. ET.

Blues G Jake Allen

Prop: 29.0 saves (-115)

Montreal has registered the fourth-most shots per game to start the season, averaging 36.0 pucks on net over its first five games.

Our proprietary save-prediction metric in models has Allen projected for the most saves on the slate Wednesday (32.13), which makes sense given St. Louis has allowed the eighth-most shots to start the season and Montreal has the third-highest Corsi for expectation.

The Pick: Over

Bruins LW Brad Marchand

Prop: 2.5 shots on goal (-130)

As we mentioned on NHL Inside the Lab, Calgary has allowed the seventh-fewest shots per game to start the season, averaging only 28.8 shots against over its first five games.

Our proprietary shot-prediction metric in models has Marchand pegged for only 2.1 shots on goal Wednesday, below his 2.60 average (86th percentile) over the past year.

It’s a tough matchup for a player with historically average shooting volume, and as a team, the Bruins own the worst Corsi for expectation on the slate (42.7).

The Pick: Under

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