Stars-Golden Knights Betting Preview: Dallas Aims for Fifth Win in a Row

Dec 09, 2018 11:45 AM EST
Credit:

Bruce Fedyck, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Jamie Benn

Betting odds: Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights

  • Stars moneyline: +130
  • Golden Knights moneyline: -150
  • Over/Under: 6 (-120/+100)
  • Puck drop: 9 p.m. ET

NHL value plays: 26-22, +13.38 units
All odds via The Action Network App as of 11:30 a.m. ET


The Dallas Stars are overperforming a bit this season and their current four-game winning streak has hoisted them into a playoff spot. Even though Dallas owns a +1 goal differential at 5v5, their expected goal (xG) differential is -1.97 according to Corsica.

The Stars’ Corsi Rating (CF%), expected goal % and high-danger scoring chance % (HDC%) are all below the break-even mark, but they aren’t treading water, so to speak.

Dallas plays a slow tempo, with a 95.29 Pace Rating (shot attempts for + shot attempts against) at 5v5. Even though the Stars give up a good chunk of shot attempts, they do a good job limiting scoring chances. They rank in the top 10 in expected goals against per 60 minutes, high-danger chances against per 60 and their .943 expected save percentage on unblocked shots is eighth-best in the NHL.

The Vegas Golden Knights are also excellent at suppressing scoring chances, but they also generate opportunities too. Vegas allows an average of 2.08 xGA/60 (5th) and generates an average of 2.56 xGF/60 (4th). The Knights are a good team and if it wasn’t for poor goaltending and poor shooting luck, they’d be a lot further up in the table.

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