Stars-Golden Knights Betting Preview: Dallas Aims for Fifth Win in a Row

Stars-Golden Knights Betting Preview: Dallas Aims for Fifth Win in a Row article feature image

Bruce Fedyck, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Jamie Benn

Betting odds: Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights

  • Stars moneyline: +130
  • Golden Knights moneyline: -150
  • Over/Under: 6 (-120/+100)
  • Puck drop: 9 p.m. ET

NHL value plays: 26-22, +13.38 units
All odds via The Action Network App as of 11:30 a.m. ET

The Dallas Stars are overperforming a bit this season and their current four-game winning streak has hoisted them into a playoff spot. Even though Dallas owns a +1 goal differential at 5v5, their expected goal (xG) differential is -1.97 according to Corsica.

The Stars’ Corsi Rating (CF%), expected goal % and high-danger scoring chance % (HDC%) are all below the break-even mark, but they aren’t treading water, so to speak.

Dallas plays a slow tempo, with a 95.29 Pace Rating (shot attempts for + shot attempts against) at 5v5. Even though the Stars give up a good chunk of shot attempts, they do a good job limiting scoring chances. They rank in the top 10 in expected goals against per 60 minutes, high-danger chances against per 60 and their .943 expected save percentage on unblocked shots is eighth-best in the NHL.

The Vegas Golden Knights are also excellent at suppressing scoring chances, but they also generate opportunities too. Vegas allows an average of 2.08 xGA/60 (5th) and generates an average of 2.56 xGF/60 (4th). The Knights are a good team and if it wasn’t for poor goaltending and poor shooting luck, they’d be a lot further up in the table.

The Knights, too, play at a below-average pace and I think this game could end up being a tightly checked slog, with few scoring chances.

That should give the Stars a fighting chance in this game even though Vegas is at home and will get the luxury of having the last change. Dallas has enough offensive talent to make good on their chances while the Knights are lacking depth up top after their top line.

Additionally, Dallas has an edge thanks to the schedule as the Knights are on a back-to-back. That also means Vegas will either play the struggling Marc-Andre Fleury for the second day in a row or will hand the keys to Malcolm Subban. No matter who plays, Dallas has the edge in the blue paint.

Even though the Stars are on the road and dealing with some injuries, I think this game is closer to a coin flip and would play Dallas all the way down to +115.

The Bet: Dallas Stars +130

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