The Toronto Maple Leafs (11-11-3) and Florida Panthers (12-11-1) meet in an NHL duel tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:30 p.m. EST at Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, Fla. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Panthers are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6 (-115o / -105u). The Panthers are a -166 favorite to win outright, while the Maple Leafs are +140 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Maple Leafs vs. Panthers predictions and NHL picks.
Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Odds, Pick
| Maple Leafs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 6 -115o / -105u | +140 |
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +154 | 6 -115o / -105u | -166 |
- Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Spread: Panthers -1.5 (+154 ), Maple Leafs +1.5 (-185)
- Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Over/Under: 6 (-115o / -105u)
- Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Moneyline: Maple Leafs +140, Panthers -166
Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Preview
Toronto Maple Leafs
There have been six or fewer total goals scored in five of Toronto’s past seven games, a product of multiple variables. Primarily, the Leafs are failing to produce high-danger scoring chances.
This season, Toronto ranks in the bottom half of the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). However, its games remain close as it has received excellent goaltending from Joseph Woll, who is expected to start between the pipes on Tuesday.
Woll returned to the team in November after missing the first month of the campaign due to personal reasons, and he has been a much-needed addition. He has surrendered three or fewer goals in five of his six starts, posting a commanding .919 save percentage and 2.80 goals-against average over that stretch.
That success is likely to continue against Florida, a team Woll has posted a .912 save percentage against over the past 12 meetings.
Florida Panthers
A more fascinating goaltending discussion is necessary for Sergei Bobrovsky, who is slated to guard the cage for Florida. He has had a roller coaster of a season, and his performance has varied widely.
For example, Bobrovsky has allowed four or more goals in four of his past 10 starts. Over that same stretch, he has posted two shutouts against the New Jersey Devils and Vegas Golden Knights, two of the most dangerous offenses in the league.
It remains to be seen which version of Bobrovsky shows up in this matchup, but there are two reasons for optimism. First, he possesses a strong track record against Toronto.
Over the past 18 meetings with the Leafs, Bobrovsky is 12-6 with a .918 save percentage and 2.22 goals-against average.
Second, he plays behind a strong blue line. This season, the Panthers rank in the top half of the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).
Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Prediction
The two main reasons for this total sitting at 6.5 are Bobrovsky’s volatility and Florida’s offensive efficiency. That said, Bobrovsky’s volatility includes tremendous performances, and he owns a strong track record against a Toronto team that has particularly struggled to generate high-danger scoring chances this season.
Meanwhile, Woll has been terrific since returning and also possesses a strong track record against Tuesday’s opponent.
Pick: Under 6.5 (-130 | Play to -135)
