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The Utah Mammoth (10-7-1) and Vegas Golden Knights (12-5-2) will meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 9:30 p.m. EST at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nev. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Golden Knights are favored at -125 on the moneyline, with the Utah Mammoth +105 to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 6.5 (-105o / -115u).
Let's get into our Utah vs. Golden Knights predictions and NHL picks.
Utah vs. Golden Knights Prediction
- Pick: Utah Mammoth Moneyline +106 (Bet365, Play to +101)
Our Utah vs. Vegas best bet is on the Mammoth moneyline, with the best odds currently available at Bet365. For all of your NHL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NHL odds page and make sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Utah vs Golden Knights Odds
| Utah Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -232 | 6.5 -105o / -115u | +105 |
| Golden Knights Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +190 | 6.5 -105o / -115u | -125 |
- Utah vs. Golden Knights puck line: Golden Knights -1.5 (+190 ), Utah +1.5 (-232)
- Utah vs. Golden Knights over/under: 6.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Utah vs. Golden Knights moneyline: Utah +105, Golden Knights -125
- Utah vs. Golden Knights best bet:Utah Mammoth Moneyline +106 (Bet365, Play to +101)
Utah Mammoth Preview
Utah will look to extract a small measure of revenge Wednesday evening, as it faces a Vegas side that eliminated it in six games last postseason. The young Mammoth gave the Golden Knights a legitimate test in that series and could easily have earned a better result. GM Bill Armstrong made the reasonable decision to continue building toward greater contention this offseason rather than making sweeping changes.
Despite their modest 10-7-1 record, the Mammoth have impressed most informed analysts with their overall play. Their defensive structure has looked quite solid, while the top six has flashed plenty of high-end skill. Utah's underlying metrics are also quite strong, as it ranks fourth in expected goal share per 60, per EvolvingHockey.
There's always a portion of observers who dislike the idea of pinning a team's struggles entirely on goaltending, but in Utah's case, it really does seem to be that simple. Per HockeyStats.com, Karel Vejmelka and Sebastian Cossa have combined for a -13.1 Goals Saved Above Expected rating, while Utah holds the second-lowest save percentage in the NHL.
The Mammoth enter Wednesday's matchup well-rested, coming off a frustrating loss in Ottawa on Saturday night, in a game where they clearly had the better run of play against a high-quality opponent. The main concern for the Mammoth entering this matchup is the health of star winger Dylan Guenther, who did not practice Tuesday.
Guenther is a true needle-mover, and his tremendous shot opens everything up for the team's highly effective top power play, which has succeeded on 37.1% of opportunities this season. If Guenther is unable to play, it looks as though Vincent Trocheck will bump up to the top power-play unit, and my assumption is that he would take the bumper spot, with Nick Schmaltz moving to the left wall.
Vejmelka is expected to get the start in goal. He holds an 8.2 GSAx rating and an .870 save percentage across 13 appearances this season.
Vegas Golden Knights Preview
Given how soft the Pacific Division looked on paper, and the amount of proven NHL talent on the Knights' roster, it felt very easy to pencil them into a top-two spot in the division heading into the year. Relative to the vast majority of teams, it never felt as though we would learn a ton about what the team truly is early on in the year after their run to the Stanley Cup Final last year, and that they would always be a safe bet to enter the playoffs viewed as a contender.
New head coach Ryan Craig was already familiar with the defensive structure established by Bruce Cassidy during his time with the Golden Knights, and has largely maintained the team's existing systems.
Craig's most notable adjustment has been a more specialized approach to player deployment, heavily favoring offensive-zone starts for skilled forwards with less well-rounded defensive games, while leaning on reliable two-way players such as Nic Dowd to handle the bulk of defensive-zone assignments. The adjustment has proven effective thus far.
One area where Craig deserves particular credit is his handling of talented rookie Trevor Connelly, who has consistently been deployed in situations that play to his strengths. While Connelly has arguably earned more than his average of 14:16 in ice time, Craig has done well to shelter the young forward from difficult defensive assignments while allowing him to develop his offensive game and adjust to the NHL level.
Over the last ten games, the Knights have played to a fairly mediocre 51.98% expected goal share, and generated just 3.2 xGF/60. Those numbers may not be entirely indicative of what the team is in the long term, but the offense has dried up a bit of late, and they have been leaning into winning more low-event games.
Carter Hart is expected to get the start in goal. After his brilliant run last postseason, he's gotten off to a solid start this year, posting a +1.7 GSAx rating and a .900 save percentage through his first 10 appearances.
Mammoth vs Golden Knights Pick
If the Mammoth can get more consistent goaltending moving forward, they look capable of competing with the Western Conference's best, given their performance in every other facet of the game. Both netminders entered the season with legitimate upside, but neither has found their groove just yet. Given the volatility of the position, it's important not to place too much weight on such a small sample, and it wouldn't surprise me if there is a little stabilization in the near future.
At the time of writing, it sounds slightly more likely than not that Guenther will suit up, and if he does, the Mammoth look to offer value at +106. Utah's overall play has been highly impressive, and this looks like a favorable spot to back a motivated Mammoth side seeking a measure of revenge against the team that eliminated them last postseason.
With the Golden Knights returning home from a lengthy road trip, the spot does seem to favor Utah, though my longer-term followers will know I try to be careful not to overrate those narratives and just think in terms of numbers.
Best Bet: Utah Mammoth Moneyline +106 (Bet365, Play to +101)
