2020 Democratic Presidential Odds: How Chances of Biden, Sanders, Bloomberg Shifted After S.C. Primary


Scott Olson/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Biden.

After struggling to find traction among voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, Joe Biden surged to a convincing victory in the South Carolina primary on Saturday night. The result will likely revitalize the former vice president’s campaign and will intensify an already polarized Democratic race. The candidates now enter Super Tuesday, where over 30% of the pledged delegates will be up for grabs over a host of different races.

According to the markets, Biden is the primary challenger to current favorite Bernie Sanders. After losing the state to Hilary Clinton in 2016, Sanders again struggled to attract support in the Palmetto State.

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Updated 2020 Democratic Primary Odds

If you’re unfamiliar with betting odds, -110 means that if you bet $110 and Bernie Sanders wins, you’d profit $100. And +250 means if you bet $100, you’d profit $250.

  • Bernie Sanders: -110 odds, 47.2% implied probability
  • Joe Biden: +250 odds, 25.7% implied probability
  • Michael Bloomberg: +600 odds, 12.9% implied probability
  • Pete Buttigieg: +1400 odds, 6.0% implied probability
  • Hillary Clinton: +2200 odds, 3.9% implied probability
  • Elizabeth Warren: +4000 odds, 2.2% implied probability
  • Amy Klobuchar: +10000 odds, 0.9% implied probability
  • Michelle Obama: +10000 odds, 0.9% implied probability
  • Tulsi Gabbard: +20000 odds, 0.4% implied probability
  • Tom Steyer: +40000 odds, 0.2% implied probability

Via Betfair. Note: Implied probabilities are juice-free

Despite Biden’s convincing wins, the markets barely shifted as the former vice president was widely expected to win the primary. Even after a forgettable showing this weekend, Sanders’ odds were exactly the same on Saturday night as they were on Saturday morning.

The biggest loser of the night was Tom Steyer, who poured abundant resources in an attempt to steer South Carolina’s African American voters away from Biden. After entering the week at +20000, Steyer’s odds now sit at 400-1.

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