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With the midterm elections set for November 3, tight races and landslide victories are sure to be in the cards. The Republican Party currently holds a slight majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. However, prediction market trends suggest potential changes may be coming in the upcoming cycle.
Excitement — both positive and negative — surrounding the impending midterm elections has grown rapidly, with over $230 million already traded on Kalshi. With all 435 House and 35 Senate seats up for election, here's how Kalshi and Polymarket users predict the 2026 U.S. Midterms.
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U.S. House Predictions
Across the board, traders expect the Democrats to take control of the House of Representatives. On Kalshi, 90.6% of users expect the Democratic Party to win the House, and Polymarket shows no difference in expectation.
Confidence in President Trump's administration has seemingly lowered due to concerns about the economy, rising inflation, and inflated prices of everyday necessities. While candidates once used Trump's endorsement to bolster their political campaigns, prediction market users expect many of those candidates to suffer with the President on the hot seat.
Not only do users expect a Democratic victory in the House — they expect a blowout. On Kalshi, 46.1% of traders expect Democrats to win by more than 10%.
U.S Senate Predictions
Kalshi users are slightly more divided when it comes to the Senate, with only 64% of traders expecting the Senate to go blue. Polymarket users are on the same page.
The task is taller for the Democratic Party to win the Senate as 20 of the 35 seats up for election belonged to Republicans this past cycle, while 13 belonged to Democrats (two are also available due to vacancy). To take a majority in the House, Democrats would have to earn four new seats, without losing any they currently possess.
Traders also do not expect the Democrats to win the Senate by as large a margin as in the House. Only 39% of people on Kalshi expect more than 52 seats to go Blue in the upcoming election, and only 16% of Polymarket users predict that result.
