You’re not misreading the calendar. Nearly 10 days after Election Day, the midterms are still underway. Because of their specific electoral systems and ballot-counting rules, both Mississippi and Alaska took longer than usual to resolve. While Democrat Scott Colom’s historic victory in Mississippi has already been called, Mary Peltola holds a notable lead over Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska, with a substantial number of ballots still left to be counted.
Here is everything you need to know about the Alaska Senate race, its potential impact on the balance of power in Washington, and where the odds currently stand on prediction markets.
Colom Wins Mississippi: AP Calls the Race After Hyde-Smith Concedes
Democratic candidate Scott Colom has defeated incumbent Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in a historic Mississippi Senate upset, with the Associated Press calling the race Wednesday evening following Hyde-Smith’s formal concession. Colom is the state’s first black senator since Reconstruction and its first Democrat elected to the Senate since 1982.
After a nail-biting vote count that stretched more than a week past Election Day, Colom pulled ahead on the basis of late-counted ballots and high turnout among Mississippi’s Black electorate, alongside widespread voter frustration over economic conditions.
In a video conceding the contest, Hyde-Smith stated she respected the decision of Mississippi voters and wished Colom well as he prepares to represent the state.
Alaska Senate Results: Peltola Leads Sullivan by About 4,250 Votes
According to preliminary election returns, Democratic challenger Mary Peltola holds a lead of roughly 4,250 votes over incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska’s Senate race.
Election officials are continuing to process outstanding absentee and mail-in ballots, with final ranked-choice tabulation scheduled once all eligible ballots are received and verified.
Because no candidate has surpassed the 50% threshold required for an outright first-round victory, the contest remains uncalled and will be decided under Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system.
On Kalshi, traders believe that Mary Peltola is headed toward a historic victory for the Democrats. She currently trades as the absolute favorite to win the election, with 99% implied odds. Election Day served as a major turning point for her contract: prior to Nov. 3, she led the board at 68%, before surging to her current numbers.
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When Alaska Counts Next: Ballot Updates Nov. 13 And 18
The next key milestone in this race arrives on Friday, November 13, when election boards process the wave of domestic absentee ballots postmarked by Election Day, alongside verified questioned ballots from regional distribution centers.
Then, November 18 marks the state’s statutory deadline to receive all overseas and military absentee ballots mailed from outside the United States.
Under Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system, if no candidate secures an outright majority above 50% once all eligible ballots are counted, the Alaska Division of Elections will trigger ranked-choice tabulation on November 18.
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Ranked-Choice Rules: How “Decoy Dan” Ballots Could Factor In
Ranked choice voting allows voters to rank as many or as few candidates as they'd like in order of preference. If no candidate wins an outright majority, the last-place candidate is eliminated and their voters’ ballots are redistributed to each voter’s second-choice selection. That process continues until one candidate wins a majority.
That is why the inclusion of “Decoy Dan” on the ballot sparked so much controversy. The votes cast for the retired schoolteacher could prove decisive once the ranked-choice tabulation begins.
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What the Final Seat Count Means for the Democrats’ Majority
Although Democrats had already secured control of the upper chamber back on November 3, the Alaska and Mississippi seats carry significant weight in determining the party’s legislative margin for maneuver following the midterm elections.
The thesis is simple: a margin of two seats marks the difference between a cohesive, functional majority and a divided chamber vulnerable to individual defectors or legislative reconciliation maneuvering.
With the Mississippi victory, Democrats now hold 55 seats. Securing Alaska would grant them full control without relying on tie-breaking votes from the vice president.
