Arizona Election Polls & Betting Odds: Biden Holds Narrow Lead Over Trump

Arizona Election Polls & Betting Odds: Biden Holds Narrow Lead Over Trump article feature image
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BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Biden

Arizona Election Odds

Candidate
Odds
Implied Probability
Joe Biden
-200
60.1%
Donald Trump
+150
39.9%

Odds as of Oct. 22 and via European sportsbook Betfair. If you’re new to betting, Donald Trump’s +150 odds mean a $100 bet would net $150 if he wins Arizona. Convert odds using our Betting Odds Calculator. Also note that the implied probabilities above do not include the tax the book charges.


Arizona Polls

Candidate
FiveThirtyEight Polling Average
Joe Biden
48.8%
Donald Trump
45.4%

538 Arizona Projection

Candidate
FiveThirtyEight Projection
Joe Biden
67%
Donald Trump
33%

Polling averages and projections as of Oct. 16 and via FiveThirtyEight. Go to their 2020 Election Forecast to learn more.


Arizona Presidential Race Updates

Thursday, Oct. 22: With less than two weeks until Election Day, the betting market gives Joe Biden a 60.1% implied probability of winning Arizona compared to Donald Trump’s 39.9% implied probability.

FiveThirtyEight’s forecast — which simulates the election 40,000 times — is projecting the former Vice President to win Arizona 67 out of every 100 times and the President only 33 out of every 100.

The site’s average of polls currently gives Biden a 48.8% vs. 45.4% edge over Trump in the state.


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With 11 of the 538 total electoral votes, Arizona is tied for the 11-most in the country.

Trump won Arizona by 3.5% over Hillary Clinton in 2016, making it his 10-closest margin of victory during that election. Trump ended up winning 304 of the electoral college votes compared to Clinton’s 227 in 2016.

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