Early Voting Ends Friday in Georgia, Texas: Over 7 Million Have Voted

Friday is the last day to vote early in Georgia and Texas before Tuesday’s election, and the two states have already combined for more than 7 million ballots. They’re also two of the key battleground states this cycle: in one, a candidate could end up a future presidential contender; in the other, a candidate is trying to make history after decades of Republican rule.

Georgia nears a record 2.3 million early votes

Georgia’s early voting period, which began Oct. 13, is closing out as the busiest midterm stretch the state has seen. By the end of the day Thursday, close to 2.3 million Georgians had cast an early ballot, according to the Secretary of State’s office, already above the full early-voting count from the 2022 midterms. Record numbers like these are bound to affect the outcome… the open question is which party benefits.

Republicans have brought out their own closing firepower too: GOP governor nominee Rick Jackson rallied with Gov. Brian Kemp in Gainesville on Thursday night. Whether the final count climbs further before polls close this evening could shape two marquee races: the Senate contest between Sen. Jon Ossoff and Rep. Mike Collins, and the governor’s race between Keisha Lance Bottoms and Jackson, where Kalshi’s traders currently favor Bottoms at 65%.

Texas early vote passes 5 million

Texas crossed 5 million early votes by Wednesday, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab: more than a fifth of the state’s registered voters, in a state Democrats haven’t carried in a Senate race since 1988.

The surge comes as Democratic state Rep. James Talarico challenges Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton for the Senate seat, in a race both parties have poured money into. Trump rallied in Texas twice this week, and Vice President JD Vance is campaigning for Paxton in Weatherford, part of a closing Republican push in a state Donald Trump carried by double digits two years ago. Republicans know Texas is one of the states that matters most if they want to hold the Senate and avoid a Democratic sweep.

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Who’s casting those ballots?

Texas and Georgia don’t register voters by party, so ABC News built its own model from voting history instead of exact tallies. The analysis found 51% of the Texas early vote leans Democratic and 45% Republican: a 14-point shift from 2022, when Republicans were ahead at this stage. The gap is wider among voters who sat out the last four federal elections: 64% of that group lean Democratic, just 21% Republican.

None of this predicts a winner. It’s a projection built on modeling, not a vote count. That said, prediction markets are reacting.

Harris closes out Georgia’s early vote

Georgia is the only Democratic-held Senate seat up this cycle in a state Trump carried two years ago, which is part of why both parties have sent their biggest names there in the campaign’s final days. Former Vice President Kamala Harris is in Atlanta Thursday and Friday, headlining a community town hall with NAACP President Derrick Johnson before a Fulton County Democratic Party fundraiser Friday night.

She follows a Wednesday visit from former President Barack Obama. At a Thursday rally with Ossoff at Clark Atlanta University, the senator told the crowd, “we have already shattered every turnout record for young voters,” pointing to youth turnout as a sign of Democratic energy. Kalshi’s traders agree Ossoff is the heavy favorite, pricing him at 96.7% against Collins.

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Rural Texas is the number Republicans are watching

Al Jazeera’s reporting from Texas found a turnout gap that could matter most in the final stretch: 21% of registered voters in rural counties had voted early, compared with 24% in the state’s bigger metro areas. Republicans count on rural turnout to offset Democratic strength in cities, so a soft rural number could decide the Talarico-Paxton race, where Kalshi currently favors Talarico at 70% to Paxton’s 30%. Historically, Republicans have done better with Election Day votes and rural areas, while Democrats have done better with early voting and urban turnout.

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What the numbers can’t tell you

None of this is a result. Social media is full of takes claiming the early-vote numbers already favor one party or the other, but those are still just interpretations. Early-vote totals measure who showed up, not who they picked, and the party breakdowns from ABC and others are statistical models built on past voting behavior, not actual ballots. Both races stay open until polls close on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3.