Two new national surveys have shaken up the Texas Senate race in its final days, and both put Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton. With early voting wrapping up Friday and dueling rallies playing out across the state this week, the contest has turned into one of the tightest in the country. Just a few days remain before one of the biggest open questions of this midterm cycle gets answered: will Texas turn blue for the first time in decades, or stay red like it has for a generation? The answer arrives on Election Day.
CNN poll: Talarico leads Paxton 49% to 43% among likely voters
A CNN/SSRS survey of 923 likely voters, conducted October 20-27, put Talarico 6 points ahead of Paxton, 49% to 43%, according to Newsweek’s reporting on the poll. The rest of the sample split between undecided voters (5%) and those backing a third option (3%). It’s one of four surveys released this week that all put Talarico in front, with leads ranging from two to eight points depending on the pollster.
Univision/YouGov poll: Talarico ahead 50% to 45%, with Hispanic voters at 55% to 37%
An N+ Univision/YouGov poll of 1,000 registered voters, fielded October 13-21 and released this week, found Talarico leading 50% to 45%. Among Hispanic voters specifically, Univision had him up 55% to 37%: a group he’ll need to turn out on Election Day in a state Democrats haven’t carried statewide since 1994. That subgroup number carries a wider margin of error than the topline figure, so it’s worth treating as directional rather than exact.
| Pollster | Dates | Talarico (D) | Paxton (R) |
| CNN/SSRS | Oct. 20-27 | 49% | 43% |
| Univision/YouGov | Oct. 13-21 | 50% | 45% |
| Fox News | Oct. 15-19 | 49% | 49% |
| Cook Political Report | Oct. 21 | 49% | 44% |
| Emerson College/Nexstar | Oct. 22 | 48% | 46% |
| Marist | Oct. 14 | 47% | 45% |
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Vance rallies in Weatherford, calls Talarico an “empty suit,” then jokes about confessing to a priest
Vice President JD Vance stumped for Paxton in Weatherford on Thursday, his third Texas rally in about a month. Mid-speech, Vance joked that he felt “a little guilty” going after Talarico and asked the crowd whether he should “lay off”: then kept swinging after they cheered him on. He called Talarico “an empty suit,” argued he answers to national Democratic leadership rather than Texans, and closed with a line aimed at the state’s identity: “Texas ain’t surrendering. Texas is not becoming California.”
Republicans crossing over: what voters at Talarico’s Dallas rally say
Talarico held a Thursday night rally in Dallas, where two attendees who’d previously voted Republican told Fox News Digital they’re backing him this time. One, who gave her name as Lori, said she and her husband came out “in support of honesty, decency and integrity.” Several prominent Texas Republicans have made similar moves publicly, including former state House Speaker Dade Phelan, who presided over Paxton’s 2023 impeachment and says the attorney general’s “character and integrity” fall short of what he looks for in office.
New- Early voting ends today in Texas and Georgia, here’s the latest movement in those races.
Can Paxton hold his party? Fox poll shows 90% of Republicans back him
A Fox News poll conducted October 15-19 found Paxton and Talarico tied at 49% apiece, a shift from a two-point Talarico lead in September. Fox’s analysts pointed to four groups moving Paxton’s way since September: the conservative base, rural Texans, suburban women, and GOP primary voters who’d originally backed Cornyn. Hispanic voters moved the other way: Fox had Talarico up 64% to 34% with that group, a reversal from 2024, when Hispanic Texans favored Donald Trump by a point. Talarico also holds the tighter partisan base, with 98% of Democrats behind him against 90% of Republicans behind Paxton.
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The polls that show a tie or a narrow lead: Fox, Emerson, Cook and Marist
Not every poll has Talarico pulling away. Along with Fox’s tie, Emerson College/Nexstar (October 22) had him up just 2 points, 48% to 46%, inside the margin of error. Cook Political Report (October 21) gave him a wider 5-point edge, 49% to 44%, while Marist (October 14) put him ahead 47% to 45%. RNC Chairman Joe Gruters dismissed talk of meaningful GOP crossover support for Talarico as a “pipe dream,” and Paxton’s campaign did not respond to requests for comment on the defections.
What’s next: early voting ends Friday, and the final weekend
Prediction markets lean further toward Talarico than any single poll. On Kalshi, he’s trading around 70% to Paxton’s 30%, with the platform’s own forecast pricing a roughly three-point Talarico margin for Election Day.
Polymarket shows a similar gap, with Talarico near 71% and Paxton near 29% on more than $8.5 million in volume, after a year in which Paxton held the edge for months before the race flipped in Talarico’s direction this fall. With early voting closing Friday and Election Day the following Tuesday, the next real test comes from turnout, not polling.
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