The midterms reshuffled Washington’s board, and plenty of pieces are still moving. One of the biggest in play right now: the future of the U.S. Secretary Of Defense. Pete Hegseth’s odds of leaving his job keep climbing on prediction markets, and now there’s a specific date attached to it: the week of November 9, when Rep. Thomas Massie says he’ll force a House vote on 8 articles of impeachment against the Defense Secretary. Here’s where the numbers stand.
Hegseth impeachment odds today: exit, impeachment and cabinet-departure prices
| Platform | Contract | Threshold | Implied odds |
| Polymarket | Hegseth impeached by…? | Dec. 31, 2026 | 32% |
| Polymarket | Hegseth impeached by…? | Mar. 31, 2027 | 52% |
| Polymarket | Hegseth impeached by…? | June 30, 2027 | 58% |
| Kalshi | Will Hegseth stop being secretary of defense? | Jan. 1, 2027 | 44% |
| Kalshi | Will Hegseth stop being secretary of defense? | Feb. 1, 2027 | 61% |
| Kalshi | Will Hegseth stop being secretary of defense? | Apr. 1, 2027 | 69% |
Prices as of Nov. 6, 2026.
Those two platforms track different things: Polymarket’s contract needs a formal House impeachment, while Kalshi’s resolves on Hegseth leaving for any reason: resignation, firing or impeachment. Kalshi’s numbers spiked above 80% right after Tuesday’s election, then settled back to 61% for the Feb. 1 threshold as Trump stood by his defense secretary. A separate Kalshi contract still has him at 57% to be the next cabinet departure, and another puts impeachment before July 2027 at 65%.
Massie sets a House vote: what the articles allege and when it could happen
Massie, a Kentucky Republican, plans to bring his resolution to the floor as soon as next week, this time with Democratic support behind him. The 8 articles accuse Hegseth of violating Congress’s war powers during the Iran conflict, among other claims tied to his run at the Pentagon. Massie told Roll Call before Election Day:
“I give it better than a 50 percent chance of passing.”
This isn’t his first attempt: he tried to force the same vote in September, only for Speaker Mike Johnson to send the House into an early recess, dismissing the effort as a “stunt.” Massie says there’s one way he’ll drop it this time: if Hegseth resigns first.
Other Democrats are piling on too. Rep. Rosa DeLauro, in line to chair the powerful Appropriations Committee, promised flatly: “We’re going to go after Hegseth.” Rep. Robert Garcia, the top Democrat on House Oversight, posted that Hegseth should lawyer up the day after the election.
Don't forget to grab the Kalshi promo code, read our Kalshi review, and download the Action Network app for more news and analysis.
Can the House pass it? The vote math with Democrats and Republican defectors
Here’s the twist: the vote happens in the outgoing Congress, not the one Democrats just won. Heading into Election Day, Republicans held roughly 218 seats to Democrats’ 214, so Massie needs nearly every Democrat in the chamber plus a handful of Republicans willing to break ranks. That’s not out of reach: several Republicans in national-security roles have reportedly soured on Hegseth since the party’s midterm losses, with some seeing little downside in voting him out on their way out the door.
Read: Ron DeSantis’ 2028 Presidential Nominee odds rise.
The Senate hurdle: why removal needs 67 votes
Impeachment and removal are two separate fights. Even after a House vote, convicting and removing a cabinet official takes a two-thirds Senate vote, 67 of 100, no matter which party holds the majority. Analysts at thelines.com estimate Democrats would need at least 11 Republican senators on board to clear that bar. In 250 years, only 2 cabinet secretaries have ever been impeached, and the Senate convicted neither.
Want to read more about politics? Visit Prediction Pro.
What Trump has said about replacing Hegseth
President Donald Trump, asked whether he’s considering a replacement, waved off the idea, telling reporters Hegseth is doing a good job. Vice President JD Vance, meanwhile, pointed to the Iran war Hegseth oversaw as a reason for the party’s midterm losses. Some officials close to the Pentagon have read Trump’s public backing as a bad sign for Hegseth rather than a good one, noting he tends to defend aides right up until he cuts them loose.
Key dates to watch through the new Congress
- Week of Nov. 9: Massie’s House vote, during the lame-duck session.
- Dec. 31, 2026 / Mar. 31, 2027 / June 30, 2027: Polymarket’s impeachment-by thresholds.
- Jan. 3, 2027: The new, Democratic-controlled Congress is sworn in.
If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.
