Adam Hamilton opens Election Day as a 64¢ favorite on Polymarket and a 63¢ favorite on Kalshi in the Kansas Senate race 2026, after Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the seat to Leans Democratic in its final ratings.
The Kansas Governor race 2026 is the tougher call, with Ty Masterson at 65¢ on Polymarket and 66¢ on Kalshi even though the final New York Times/Siena poll had Cindy Holscher ahead 48-47.
- Adam Hamilton, Roger Marshall, Ty Masterson and Cindy Holscher all have live Kansas Governor election and Senate contracts on both exchanges, both platforms list a Governor-Senate combo market, and Polymarket adds Margin of Victory markets for each race.
- The final Times/Siena poll had Hamilton up 49-44, while Masterson vs Holscher polls are split, with Times/Siena and a Washington Post/Schar School poll favoring Holscher and Emerson and CNN/SSRS still giving Masterson the lead.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Kansas Governor election and Kansas Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms before the polls close tonight.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas Senate Race | Polymarket | Adam Hamilton | YES (64¢) | $156.25 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Polymarket | Roger Marshall | YES (38¢) | $263.16 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Kalshi | Adam Hamilton | YES (63¢) | $158.73 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Kalshi | Roger Marshall | YES (38¢) | $263.16 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Polymarket | Ty Masterson | YES (65¢) | $153.85 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Polymarket | Cindy Holscher | YES (36¢) | $277.78 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Kalshi | Ty Masterson | YES (66¢) | $151.52 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Kalshi | Cindy Holscher | YES (36¢) | $277.78 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Election Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket prices every Kansas contract between 1¢ and 99¢, so the price doubles as an implied probability, and a "Yes" share settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
The Senate and Governor markets both resolve on the winner of the November 3 general election, polls close at 7 p.m. local time, and Polymarket's boards list results as expected at 8 p.m.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price. That is an approximation in the Senate race, where Libertarian David Graham is also on the ballot.
Kansas Senate Race 2026
Polymarket's Senate board carries a Lean D label, with Hamilton at 64¢, a 64% implied probability, and Marshall at 38¢.
Adam Hamilton (YES 64¢ / NO 38¢, +1 pts)
Hamilton added 1 point, and the forecasters are moving toward the board.
Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted the race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic in its final ratings, making it one of four forecasters in a TIME review of ten that lean Democratic, while the other six still call it a toss-up.
The final Hamilton vs Marshall polls point the same way, with Times/Siena at 49-44 and a Survey 160 poll at 50-44, though the RealClearPolling average through Sunday is a narrower 3.6 points.
Roger Marshall (YES 38¢ / NO 64¢, -2 pts)
Marshall lost 2 points and is now priced as an underdog in a seat he won by 11.4 points in 2020, 53.2% to 41.8%.
Republicans have not treated the race lightly, and Sabato's Crystal Ball reported in mid-October that the Senate Leadership Fund had jumped in with an eight-figure investment.
Kansas Governor Race 2026
Polymarket still tags the Governor race Lean R, with Masterson at 65¢, a 65% implied probability, and Holscher at 36¢.
Ty Masterson (YES 65¢ / NO 36¢, -4 pts)
Masterson lost 4 points, tying Holscher's gain for the biggest move on Polymarket's four standalone contracts.
Masterson vs Holscher polls no longer agree on who is ahead. Times/Siena has Holscher up 1 and the Washington Post/Schar School poll has her up 6, while YouGov, Emerson and CNN/SSRS have Masterson ahead by 1, 4 and 5.
Cook Political Report has rated the race a toss-up since late October, while Sabato's Crystal Ball keeps it at Leans Republican.
Cindy Holscher (YES 36¢ / NO 65¢, +4 pts)
Holscher gained 4 points, the same size as Masterson's drop, and her 36¢ price implies a 36% chance.
Her path runs through Johnson County, where nearly 190,000 voters cast early ballots before the Monday noon deadline, close to 40% of registered voters and a record for a non-presidential year.
Holscher is from Overland Park, and Hamilton, Holscher and Masterson all made final stops in the county on Monday.
Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Race 2026 Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts
🗳️ Where to Vote: Use the 'My Ballot' feature on Kalshi to find your local polling location and ballot info!
Kalshi lists a Yes and a No price for every candidate, and both the Senate and Governor contracts resolve by winning party when the November 3 vote is called.
Each candidate also carries a Chance percentage that can differ slightly from the YES price, so the prices below use YES and the movement figures are the changes Kalshi displays.
Kansas Senate Race 2026
Kalshi has Hamilton at 63¢ and Marshall at 38¢, so the two exchanges sit within a cent of each other on both sides of the Senate race.
Adam Hamilton (YES 63¢ / NO 38¢, +1 pts)
Hamilton rose 1 point on Kalshi, and his 63% Chance reading matches the YES price.
Kansas has not elected a Johnson County resident to the Senate since 1972, and Hamilton, a Leawood pastor, would end that drought.
Roger Marshall (YES 38¢ / NO 63¢, -1 pts)
Marshall slipped 1 point and trades level with Polymarket at 38¢.
The Libertarian line is the wild card in a margin this tight, with David Graham at 4% in the final Times/Siena poll, nearly as large as Hamilton's 5-point lead there.
Kansas Governor Race 2026
Kalshi prices Masterson at 66¢ and Holscher at 36¢, which leaves the Republican a cent firmer than on Polymarket.
Ty Masterson (YES 66¢ / NO 35¢, -3 pts)
Masterson fell 3 points on Kalshi's Chance reading, which sits at 65%, a point under the 66¢ YES price.
A Masterson win would extend a decades-long Kansas habit of never electing consecutive governors of the same party, according to the Kansas City Star, after two terms under Democrat Laura Kelly.
Cindy Holscher (YES 36¢ / NO 65¢, +3 pts)
Holscher gained 3 points, a smaller move than on Polymarket, and trades level with it at 36¢.
Kelly won in 2022 by 2.2 points, so a Holscher win by a similar margin would fit the state's recent history.
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Kansas Governor-Senate Combo Bets
Polymarket and Kalshi both carry Governor-Senate combo boards, and each contract ties one Governor result to one Senate result.
A Republican sweep is still the top single outcome at 39¢ on Polymarket and 38¢ on Kalshi, but the Democratic sweep has overtaken the Masterson and Hamilton split on both exchanges, at 32¢ against 29¢ and 28¢.
That reverses Monday's order, when the split sat at 33¢ on both exchanges and the sweep at 28¢ and 29¢. Polymarket shows the sweep up 4 points and the split down 4, while Kalshi shows them up 3 and down 4, and the Holscher and Marshall split remains the long shot at 3¢ and 4¢.
| 🏢 Platform | 🗳️ Outcome | ✅ YES | ❌ NO | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Ty Masterson and Roger Marshall win (GOP sweep) | YES 39¢ | NO 62¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Ty Masterson and Adam Hamilton win (split ticket) | YES 29¢ | NO 72¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Cindy Holscher and Adam Hamilton win (Dem sweep) | YES 32¢ | NO 69¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Cindy Holscher and Roger Marshall win (split ticket) | YES 3¢ | NO 98¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Ty Masterson and Roger Marshall win (GOP sweep) | YES 38¢ | NO 65¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Ty Masterson and Adam Hamilton win (split ticket) | YES 28¢ | NO 73¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Cindy Holscher and Adam Hamilton win (Dem sweep) | YES 32¢ | NO 70¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Cindy Holscher and Roger Marshall win (split ticket) | YES 4¢ | NO 98¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Race 2026 Margin of Victory Odds on Polymarket
Polymarket also lists Margin of Victory markets for both races, pricing how big the winning margin will be rather than just who wins, and it is the only exchange in this piece with a margin board.
The Senate board splits the margin into bands of about five points. Democrats winning by 0-5%, sits at 36¢ on the Yes side and 66¢ on the No side.
Hamilton's outright win is priced at 64¢, so a little more than half of that probability is a Democratic win by less than five points. That fits the polling, since the latest Hamilton vs Marshall polls put his lead between 1 and 9 points, with the RealClearPolling average at 3.6.
The Governor board uses narrower bands of about three points, and the Democrats by 0-3% contract reads 40¢ on the Yes side and 84¢ on the No side, up 1 point.
Those two prices add up to 124¢, a very wide spread, and the 40% headline sits above Holscher's 36¢ outright price, so treat this contract as a rough guide rather than a firm probability. For context, Kelly's 2022 win by 2.2 points would fall inside that band, and so would Times/Siena's 1-point Holscher edge.
| 🏢 Platform | 🗳️ Outcome | ✅ YES | ❌ NO | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Kansas Senate race: Democrats win by 0-5% | YES 36¢ | NO 66¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Kansas Governor race: Democrats win by 0-3% | YES 40¢ | NO 84¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Election
Senate pricing is nearly identical across the exchanges. Polymarket has Hamilton at YES 64¢ against YES 63¢ on Kalshi, and Marshall is level at YES 38¢.
Governor pricing tells a similar story. Kalshi has Masterson a cent higher at YES 66¢ than Polymarket's YES 65¢, while Holscher is level at YES 36¢.
The combo boards stay within a cent of each other, with the GOP sweep at YES 39¢ and YES 38¢, the Democratic sweep at YES 32¢ on both, and the Masterson and Hamilton split at YES 29¢ and YES 28¢, respectively.
The sharper disconnect is on the Governor side, where the boards and the polls disagree. Two of the five latest public Masterson vs Holscher polls have Holscher ahead, yet neither exchange prices her above YES 36¢.
In the Senate race, the boards and the Hamilton vs Marshall polls point the same way, with both exchanges pricing Hamilton at YES 63¢ or better while all six late polls cited here have him ahead.
Both platforms carry combo boards, so the structural difference is elsewhere. Polymarket alone lists margin of victory contracts, while Kalshi shows an explicit YES and NO price on both standalone races and Polymarket's standalone boards quote only each candidate's own YES price, which is why its NO prices above are derived.
Kansas Governor Election and Kansas Senate Race 2026 Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The Senate boards barely moved, with Hamilton up 1 point on both exchanges and Marshall down 2 on Polymarket and 1 on Kalshi.
The Kansas Governor race 2026 boards did the moving, with Masterson down 4 on Polymarket and 3 on Kalshi and Holscher up 4 and 3, a shift that tracks the final Times/Siena poll.
That poll had Holscher up 48-47 after showing Masterson ahead 49-44 in late September, a 6-point swing in the margin, and the Washington Post/Schar School poll had her up 6.
Turnout is the other driver. Johnson County closed early voting with nearly 190,000 ballots, about 40% of registered voters, and KSHB reported Democrats ahead of Republicans among those early ballots by about 4 points.
The Johnson County Post has warned that early leads on election night could shrink as Election Day results come in, since Emerson found early voters breaking roughly 2-to-1 for Hamilton and Holscher while voters who had yet to cast ballots leaned Republican. KCTV reported that rain is expected on Election Day.
The combo board adds a cross-check. The two Hamilton pairings, the Democratic sweep and the Masterson and Hamilton split, add up to 61¢ on Polymarket and 60¢ on Kalshi, a few cents under his 64¢ and 63¢ Senate prices, while the four combo prices on each exchange add up to 103¢ and 102¢, so gaps of that size are worth discounting.
The next repricing trigger is the count itself, with polls closing at 7 p.m. local time and Polymarket listing results as expected at 8 p.m.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas Senate Race | Polymarket | Adam Hamilton | YES (64¢) | $156.25 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Polymarket | Roger Marshall | YES (38¢) | $263.16 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Kalshi | Adam Hamilton | YES (63¢) | $158.73 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Kalshi | Roger Marshall | YES (38¢) | $263.16 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Polymarket | Ty Masterson | YES (65¢) | $153.85 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Polymarket | Cindy Holscher | YES (36¢) | $277.78 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Kalshi | Ty Masterson | YES (66¢) | $151.52 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Kalshi | Cindy Holscher | YES (36¢) | $277.78 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Race 2026 on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Race 2026: Final Thoughts
This is a Kansas Senate race 2026 that both exchanges now price as a Democratic-leaning contest at 64¢ and 63¢, with the forecasters and the final polls catching up to the board, and a Kansas Governor election where Masterson is still the favorite at 65¢ and 66¢ despite polls that no longer agree.
For the clearest signal on how traders expect the night to end, look at the margin and combo boards. The Democratic sweep now ranks ahead of the Masterson and Hamilton split, a Hamilton win by less than five points is priced at 36¢ on Polymarket, and tonight's count is the only catalyst left.
Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Election FAQs
What are the current Kansas Senate race 2026 odds?
Adam Hamilton is trading at 64¢ on Polymarket and 63¢ on Kalshi, while Roger Marshall sits at 38¢ on both.
What are the current Kansas Governor race 2026 odds?
Ty Masterson is trading at 65¢ on Polymarket and 66¢ on Kalshi, while Cindy Holscher sits at 36¢ on both.
What do the latest Hamilton vs Marshall polls show?
Hamilton vs Marshall polls favor the Democrat, with the Washington Post/Schar School poll at 52-43, Survey 160 at 50-44, Times/Siena at 49-44, Emerson College and CNN/SSRS at 49-45 and YouGov at 50-49.
Do the latest Hamilton vs Marshall polls support Hamilton's price on Polymarket and Kalshi?
Largely, yes. All six of those late polls have Hamilton ahead, by 1 to 9 points, and the RealClearPolling average through Sunday gives him a 3.6-point lead, but both exchanges still price Marshall at 38¢ because several of the leads are small next to the polls' margins of error.
What do the latest Masterson vs Holscher polls show?
Masterson vs Holscher polls are split. Times/Siena has Holscher ahead 48-47 and the Washington Post/Schar School poll has her up 6, while YouGov has Masterson ahead 50-49, Emerson College 50-46 and CNN/SSRS 50-45. A Global Strategy Group poll hired by Holscher's campaign showed a 47-47 tie.
Do Masterson vs Holscher polls support Masterson's price on Polymarket and Kalshi?
Only partly. Two of the five latest public polls have Holscher ahead, yet Masterson is still priced at 65¢ on Polymarket and 66¢ on Kalshi, with Cook Political Report rating the race a toss-up and Sabato's Crystal Ball at Leans Republican.
Do Polymarket and Kalshi price the Kansas Governor election differently?
Barely. Polymarket has Masterson at 65¢ and Kalshi has him at 66¢, with Holscher level at 36¢ on both. The main difference is that Polymarket also lists margin of victory markets.
What are the Polymarket margin of victory odds for the Kansas races?
Polymarket prices a Democratic win by 0-5% in the Senate race at 36¢ on the Yes side, and a Democratic win by 0-3% in the Governor race at 40¢, though that Governor contract shows a wide spread with the No side at 84¢.
What do the Kansas Governor-Senate combo bets show?
Polymarket prices a Masterson and Marshall sweep at 39¢, a Masterson and Hamilton split at 29¢, a Holscher and Hamilton sweep at 32¢ and a Holscher and Marshall split at 3¢. Kalshi has the same four outcomes at 38¢, 28¢, 32¢ and 4¢.
How do I trade the Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Race 2026 odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the Kansas Senate race 2026 or Kansas Governor race 2026 contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before the result is called.
