It’s Election Day, and final forecasts predict a serious advantage to Democratic candidates in two battleground states. With hours left before the votes are tallied, here's a final look at the odds for Maine and Ohio's Senate races at prediction markets.
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Kalshi Midterm Election Day Updates
Maine Senate Race: Troy Jackson’s odds rise 11 points to 69%
At the Northeast corner of the United States, Kalshi users think the race between Troy Jackson and Susan Collins. In the "Maine Senate Winner" market, users have Jackson — the Democratic candidate — at 69 cents. Polymarket gives Jackson a 71%, up 13 points over the last week.
Jackson supports Medicare for All and has campaigned to lower prescription drug costs through federal price negotiation. He proposes higher taxes on billionaires and corporations while looking to cut taxes for working families, including tax credit expansion.
Collins also prioritizes affordable health care and lower drug costs, and has campaigned to expand rural access to these resources. She supports workforce training, small businesses, and fair trade. Additionally, Collins seeks tariff exemptions for Maine businesses affected by tariffs on Canadian goods.
Ohio Senate Race: Sherrod Brown at 71% at Kalshi
Moving to the Midwest, Kalshi users are equally confident that the Blue candidate will pull through in the Buckeye State, as Sherrod Brown leads Republican Jon Husted 72-28. Polymarket looks the same.
Brown, an 18-year incumbent, has cuts taxes for working families. Additionally, he has opposed tariffs that raise costs for Ohioans. He supports restoring expired ACA subsidies, prioritizing rural care, and limiting insurer denials and drug prices.
Husted, meanwhile, claims that he has prioritized affordability by supporting the 2025 tax law, which included tax relief for tips and overtime and an increased Child Tax Credit. He supports stricter border enforcement and the Trump administration’s overall immigration agenda.
Final polls: Times/Siena has Jackson up 6, Brown up 5
Final polling numbers from Nov. 1 look pretty similar to current Kalshi forecasts. In Maine, Times/Siena has Jackson at 51% and Collins 45%. In Ohio, Brown leads Husted 49-44.
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Ohio’s governor’s race: Acton at 82%
In Ohio's gubernatorial race, the dust also seems to be clearing. Democrat Amy Acton is leading Republican Vivek Ramaswamy by 82% on Kalshi and by 83% on Polymarket. In Times/Siena polling, Acton is up by six points.
Last-minute checklist: what to check before trading Maine and Ohio
Polls close at 8 PM ET in Maine and 7:30 PM ET in Ohio.
If you want to read more about politics and elections, visit Prediction Proand read our midterms predictions.
Ohio Senate Race Summary
Ohio’s race is a special election to fill the seat JD Vance vacated when he became vice president. Governor Mike DeWine appointed Jon Husted, Ohio’s former lieutenant governor, to hold the seat in early 2025, and Husted secured Trump’s endorsement ahead of the 2026 vote. Democrats got the recruit they wanted when Sherrod Brown, who served three Senate terms before losing re-election to Bernie Moreno in 2024, jumped into the race.
Trump carried Ohio by 11 points that same year, and the state hasn’t backed a Democratic presidential nominee since 2012, making this a genuine reach for Democrats even with a well-known candidate. Polling has been inconsistent: one GOP-aligned poll showed Husted up six points, while a FOX News survey had Brown ahead 53-45, a margin it described as unchanged since June. Both campaigns are raising serious money, with spending expected to break records for a non-presidential cycle.
Despite the mixed polling signals, prediction markets have consistently favored Brown, with Kalshi pricing him around 60% to Husted’s 41% as of early October — one of the clearer market-versus-polls splits of the cycle.
Maine Senate Race Summary
Maine’s race took a dramatic turn. Susan Collins, the five-term Republican incumbent, initially drew progressive Graham Platner as her Democratic challenger after Governor Janet Mills opted out. Platner won the June primary, but in July a former girlfriend’s rape allegation prompted mass defections from Democratic leaders, including Chuck Schumer, and he suspended his campaign.
Troy Jackson, Maine’s former Senate president, filed to replace him and won the nomination at a party convention by a 566-5 vote. The switch scrambled the race: a late-September NYT/Siena poll had Collins leading Jackson 49-46, yet prediction markets have swung the other way, with Jackson favored at roughly 64% to Collins’s 36% in more recent market reads — another case where polling and markets are telling different stories heading into November.
