Just one week out from the midterms, Michigan remains a battleground Republicans refuse to surrender. The latest push to back nominee Mike Rogers featured JD Vance, who headlined a rally where he took aim at Abdul El-Sayed. Meanwhile, prediction markets and public polling continue to show a decisive lead for the Democratic contender, a trajectory that shows no signs of slowing down.
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Vance Rallies in Howell: What He Said About El-Sayed and Rogers
JD Vance made a campaign stop in Livingston County, Michigan, to throw his support behind former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers in his bid to capture the Senate seat in the November 3 election. The Republican nominee finds himself in serious problems, as his Democratic challenger, Abdul El-Sayed, has a decisive lead on the Kalshi trading board with 69% implied odds.
Against the backdrop of the rally, Vance seized the opportunity to ramp up attacks against El-Sayed, echoing what Donald Trump said in recent days. Vance linked the Democrat’s political stances to the riots in France. “The scene of destruction in Paris may be an ocean away, but ask yourselves: are they really so hard to imagine here in the United States of America?” Vance said.
He continued: “What we saw in France, the hatred, the ingratitude, the desire to destroy rather than the desire to build, that exact same cancer is what has corrupted Abdul El-Sayed.”
Rogers Calls El-Sayed “DSA-tied” and El-Sayed’s Campaign Responds
Mike Rogers did not pull his punches either. Speaking about El-Sayed, he declared: “I am running against the most radical, most extreme DSA-tied candidate in the country.”
Prior to those remarks, El-Sayed had already come under personal fire from Donald Trump, who suggested the Democratic nominee was complicit with jihadism and characterized him as an avatar of extreme Islamism. Addressing a Democratic rally, El-Sayed pushed back: “They think that by pointing at my name and my faith, that somehow you’re going to ignore the fact that you can’t afford your gas or your groceries, can’t see a doctor.”
Michigan Senate Odds Today: El-Sayed’s Price One Week Out
Beyond the insults and inflammatory remarks at rallies, prediction markets appear to be settled on who holds the upper hand in the Michigan Senate race. Currently, Abdul El-Sayed is trading at a 69% implied odds, though he touched an early-October peak of 72%.
In contrast, Mike Rogers has totally lost his momentum, sliding from a highly competitive position in August to trading as an absolute underdog, with Yes contracts selling at just 32 cents.
Michigan Senate Polls: Decision Desk Average has El-Sayed Up 2 Points
Polling paints an increasingly difficult picture for the Republican nominee. In the latest survey conducted by The Glengariff Group, Inc., Abdul El-Sayed leads with a six-percentage-point advantage (51% to 45%).
That margin marks a notable step forward in El-Sayed's bid, building on earlier surveys from InsiderAdvantage, Michigan State University, and Marist University that showed him holding narrower leads in the one-to-three-point range.
For more analysis on Michigan and the rest of the map, check out our midterms predictions.
Michigan Early Voting: More Than 1.2 Million Ballots Cast
More than 1.2 million Michigan voters have already cast their ballots through early in-person voting and absentee options, setting a pace that signals intense voter engagement ahead of the November 3 midterm election.
Part of that voter enthusiasm has been fueled by the high-stakes battle between Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers. Leadership from both the GOP and the Democratic Party have staged numerous rallies to energize their campaigns and mobilize their respective electoral bases across Michigan.
The GOP’s biggest push to bolster Rogers came this past Sunday with a Donald Trump-headlined rally in Port Huron, where the president backed his candidate while also verbally attacking El-Sayed, accusing him of not being loyal to the United States.
