Minnesota’s Senate race got another jolt this week after President Donald Trump posted a warning about vote counting in the state, and Sen. Tina Smith didn’t let it slide. Tafoya vs. Flanagan has turned into one of the most closely watched contests of the midterms, with Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan trying to hold the seat Smith is vacating against Republican Michele Tafoya. The fallout kept building Tuesday, when a reporter asked Trump point-blank if he’d respect the midterm results “whatever happens.”
His answer: “If they’re honest elections.” With polls and prediction markets both favoring Democrats and Election Day days away, that conditional answer is doing a lot of work.
Trump says the federal government will be “watching closely” in Minnesota
On Monday, Trump posted on Truth Social promising Tafoya his full endorsement and casting the race almost entirely in terms of ballot security. He wrote that the federal government would be “watching closely” as votes come in, and warned, “The only way she can lose is if they cheat.”
Trump also repeated his long-standing, unsupported claim that he actually carried Minnesota in 2016, 2020 and 2024, framing the state’s Democratic streak since Richard Nixon’s 1972 win as proof the results can’t be trusted. He did not offer any evidence to back the fraud claim.
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Tina Smith and Peggy Flanagan respond
Smith, who is not seeking reelection, answered within hours on X. “He’s blatantly laying the groundwork to steal an election,” she wrote, arguing her home state would not accept pressure from a president it has already turned away three times.
Flanagan has leaned on a similar argument all fall, telling voters in campaign ads that a Tafoya win would simply hand Trump one more vote in the Senate, while framing her own run around lowering costs for Minnesota families.
Tafoya has tried to put some distance between herself and the president even while welcoming his support, saying she’ll work with Trump when he’s right and push back when he’s wrong. Whether that’s a genuine break with Trump or just smart general-election math is hard to say from the outside, but it’s a needle Tafoya has had to thread all fall.
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Minnesota’s secretary of state rejects the fraud claims
Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon has flatly rejected the idea that the state’s elections aren’t secure, standing by the integrity of the vote-counting process. The dispute lands against a backdrop Republicans have leaned on all year: no GOP candidate has won a Minnesota Senate race since Norm Coleman in 2002. Neither Trump nor his campaign has produced any evidence for the fraud claim in this race.
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Minnesota Senate polls: Flanagan leads Tafoya by about 3 to 4 points
Public polling backs up the idea that this race has tightened without flipping. RealClearPolling’s average now shows Flanagan ahead by roughly 3.5 points, down from a wider cushion earlier in the fall. Recent surveys put her lead in a similar range:
- Mid-October poll: Flanagan 45% vs Tafoya 42%
- Early-October poll: Flanagan 47% vs Tafoya 43%
Much of that movement traces back to Republican attacks linking Flanagan, as Gov. Tim Walz’s second-in-command, to fraud uncovered in the state’s social service programs.
Tafoya, a former NFL sideline reporter who supports abortion rights, has built her campaign largely around that issue, while Flanagan has centered hers on affordability.
If you’re tracking how the odds have shifted this week, don't forget to visit Prediction Pro and our midterms predictionsfor more political content.
Cook moves the race toward Republicans; odds today
The Cook Political Report moved Minnesota from Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic on Oct. 20, one of the few Senate ratings this cycle to shift toward the GOP.
The Minnesota Senate odds on Kalshi and Polymarket haven’t moved nearly as far. Kalshi prices Flanagan at about 90% to hold the seat against roughly 10% for Tafoya, on more than $4.7 million traded.
Prediction markets look considerably more confident in a Flanagan win than Cook’s rating alone would suggest, though nothing is locked in with Election Day still ahead. Polymarket shows almost the same split, with Flanagan near 91% and Tafoya around 9% on close to $484,000 in volume.
Both markets still treat a Tafoya win as a clear underdog outcome, even as the race draws more national attention than it has in years: and the kind of attention that makes it worth checking the Kalshi board yourself before Election Day.
| Platform | Flanagan (D) | Tafoya (R) | Volume |
| Kalshi | 90% | 10% | $4.72M |
| Polymarket | 91% | 9% | $484K |
