President Trump State of the Union Odds: Top Prop Bets, Staff Picks

Feb 05, 2019 03:54 PM EST
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President Donald Trump. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

  • President Trump will deliver his second State of the Union Address tonight at 9 p.m. ET.
  • Sportsbooks across the market have released a plethora of prop bets to mark the occasion.

Whether you’re a seasoned wiseguy or a casual bettor, we all have an empty feeling with football being over. But that doesn’t mean the sweat ends. With prop betting in the air, it’s time to turn our attention to the next big event.

You guessed it, the State of the Union.

Tonight at 9 p.m. ET, President Donald Trump will deliver his second State of the Union (SOTU) address. It comes at a pivotal time in Trump’s presidency, as the President’s approval rating is tanking and Democrats and Republicans remain in a high-stakes game of chicken over the Border Wall.

Meanwhile, another government shutdown looms and Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation continues to cast a massive shadow over Washington.

In case you didn’t know, you can bet on pretty much anything, including politics.

Democrat, Republican, Independent. Doesn’t matter. We’re all united by a common thread: making money. Without further ado, here are the top SOTU props being offered across the market.

Will Trump say “thanks” or “thank you” first?

  • Thanks +300 (25% chance)
  • Thank You -500 (83.8% chance)

What will be the length of Trump’s speech?

  • One hour or longer -250 (71.4% chance)
  • Less than one hour +140 (37% chance)

What color will Trump’s tie be?

  • Red -120 (54.5% chance)
  • Blue +110 (52.4% chance)
  • Other +450 (18.2% chance)

Will Trump say Border Wall?

  • Yes -160 (61.5% chance)
  • No +120 (45.5% chance)

Will Trump say border funding?

  • Yes -400 (80% chance)
  • No +250 (28.6% chance)

Will Trump say Southern Border?

  • Yes -700 (87.5% chance)
  • No +400 (20% chance)

Will Trump say Caravans?

  • Yes +275 (26.7% chance)
  • No -450 (81.8% chance)

Will Trump say China?

  • Yes -700 (87.5% chance)
  • No +400 (20% chance)

Will Trump say Russia?

  • Yes +200 (33.3% chance)
  • No -300 (75% chance)

Will Trump say Fake News?

  • Yes +800 (11.1% chance)
  • No -2500 (96.2% chance)

Will Trump say ISIS?

  • Yes -450 (81.8% chance)
  • No +275 (26.7% chance)

Will Trump say Make America Great Again?

  • Yes -550 (84.6% chance)
  • No +325 (23.5% chance)

Will Trump say Make America Safe Again?

  • Yes +140 (41.7% chance)
  • No -180 (64.3% chance)

Will Trump say National Crisis?

  • Yes +600 (14.3% chance)
  • No -1500 (93.8% chance)

Will Trump say National Emergency?

  • Yes +275 (26.7% chance)
  • No -450 (81.8% chance)

Will Trump say Unemployment?

  • Yes -900 (90% chance)
  • No +500 (16.7% chance)

Will Trump say Witch Hunt?

  • Yes +1200 (7.7% chance)
  • No -5000 (98% chance)

Will Trump say Super Bowl?

  • Yes +600 (14.3% chance)
  • No -1500 (93.8% chance)

Will Trump say Patriots?

  • Yes +250 (28.6% chance)
  • No -400 (80% chance)

Will Trump say Brady of Kraft?

  • Yes +1200 (7.7% chance)
  • No -5000 (98% chance)

Which will be said more times during Trump’s Speech?

  • Wall -600 (85.7% chance)
  • Huge +400 (20% chance)

How many times will “Kavanaugh” be mentioned?

  • Over 1.5  -115 (53.5% chance)
  • Under 1.5  -115 (53.5% chance)

Will Chuck Schumer or Nancy Pelosi stand and clap for Trump?

  • Yes +200 (33.3% chance)
  • No -300 (75% chance)

Will Alexandria Ocasio Cortez stand at any point during Trump’s speech?

  • Yes -220 (68.8% chance)
  • No +180 (35.7% chance)

Will Trump say “Happy Lunar New Year?”

  • Yes +250 (71.4% chance)
  • No -400 (80% chance)

How many times will Trump say “Democrats”?

  • Over 2.5  -300 (75% chance)
  • Under 2.5  +200 (33.3% chance)

How many times will Trump say “Crisis”?

  • Over 3.5  -105 (51.2% chance)
  • Under 3.5  -135 (57.4% chance)

How many times will Trump say “Mexico”?

  • Over 4.5  +120 (45.5% chance)
  • Under 4.5 -160 (61.% chance)

How many times will Trump say “Drugs”?

  • Over 2.5  -170 (63% chance)
  • Under 2.5  +130 (45.5% chance)

Action Network Staff Picks

Josh Appelbaum:  Over 1 hour -250, Thank You -500, No “Lunar New Year” -400, ISIS -450, Over 2.5 “Democrats” -300, China -700

I’ve been monitoring the odds movement on these props all morning. I’ve noticed the “No Lunar New Year” odds rise from -250 to -500 since opening, ISIS mention -250 to -450, while the “Over 2.5 Democrats” mentions rose form -200 to -300.

Casual bettors don’t even know these options exist, so I’m confident sharps with an edge are shifting these lines. Trump’s SOTU last year went one hour and 20 minutes and the odds on Over one hour have already moved from -180 to -250 since this morning.

John Ewing:  Middle length State of the Union

Middling in betting is when you place a wager on both outcomes of an event with a chance to win both bets. At one sportsbook you can bet that Trump’s speech will be take longer than one hour at -250 odds.

At another book take the under at 1:07:30 (-115). If Trump’s State of the Union lasts between 1:00:01 and 1:07:29, you win both bets.

Mike Marsh: No mention of Pelosi in first minute -200

Even though Trump seems to have more respect for Pelosi compared to other top Democrats, I don’t think he’ll be in a rush to mention her name in the first 60 seconds of a major address to the country.

After all, she’s a symbol of his failure after Democrats took control of the House of Representatives. Since this morning, the odds have moved from -135 to -200.

Mark Gallant: How many times will Trump say “Mexico” – Over 2.5 -130

Since one of the main points of discussion will by the government shutdown and the wall, it makes sense to me that Trump will mention Mexico at least a few times.

The over/under on his speech is more than an hour, which means he’d likely only need to say Mexico once every 20 minutes or so. I could potentially see him saying Mexico three times in a few minutes, which is why this is my favorite prop of the bunch.

Keith LeBlanc: To say “caravan” Yes +150

Trump loves to comment on the caravans crossing the border. Give me Trump to say the word caravan at +150.


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With an eye on the future, sportsbooks are also offering odds on whether or not Trump will be impeached, as well as which party and which candidate will win the 2020 Election.

Will Trump be impeached by the House in his 1st term?

  • Yes +120 (45.5% chance)
  • No -150 (60% chance)

Which party will win the 2020 Presidential Election?

  • Democrats -185 (64.9% chance)
  • Republicans +140 (41.7% chance)
  • Other +2500 (3.8% chance)

Who will win the 2020 Presidential Election?

  • Donald Trump +229 (30.4% chance)
  • Kamala Harris +515 (16.3% chance)
  • Beto O’Rourke +532 (15.8% chance)
  • Joe Biden +675 (12.9% chance)
  • Bernie Sanders +860 (10.4% chance)
  • Elizabeth Warren +1100 (8.3% chance)
  • Sherrod Brown +2617 (3.7% chance)
  • Michael Bloomberg +2727 (3.5% chance)
  • Mike Pence +2750 (3.5% chance)
  • Cory Booker +4000 (2.4% chance)
  • John Kasich +4069 (2.3% chance)
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