The political chessboard didn’t stop moving once the dust from last week’s blue wave settled. Two of its biggest pieces, Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas, are still sitting right where they started. The New York Times reported Wednesday that friends of Alito say the 76-year-old justice has ruled out retiring until Democrats hold the Senate majority. Here’s how prediction markets are reacting.
Alito reportedly has no plans to retire before Democrats take the Senate
The report landed 2 days after Tuesday’s midterms handed Democrats a wide win across both chambers, reviving talk in Republican circles that Alito should retire now, while the GOP still hold the Senate votes needed to confirm a successor. In August, Alito told TheWall Street Journal he was “here for another term.” Justice Thomas, 78 and the court’s oldest member, has said much the same for months: no plans to leave.
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Supreme Court retirement odds today: Alito and Thomas contracts
Kalshi’s “When will Justice Alito retire?” ladder puts the odds of him stepping down before January 1, 2027 at 6.4%, and before July 1, 2027 at 21%. Polymarket’s separate Alito market lands close by: 5% by December 31 and 20% by June 30, 2027. Thomas draws a far quieter market: Polymarket prices him at 7% to retire by year-end and 11% by next June.
| Justice | Deadline | Platform | Implied odds |
| Alito | Before Jan. 1, 2027 | Kalshi | 6.4% |
| Alito | Before July 1, 2027 | Kalshi | 21% |
| Alito | By Dec. 31, 2026 | Polymarket | 5% |
| Alito | By June 30, 2027 | Polymarket | 20% |
| Thomas | By Dec. 31, 2026 | Polymarket | 7% |
| Thomas | By June 30, 2027 | Polymarket | 11% |
Traders have put down nearly $6 million across Kalshi and Polymarket on Alito’s timing since the markets opened in February. Thomas’s Polymarket contract, by comparison, has drawn barely $22,000 combined: may be a sign the market takes his denials more seriously than it takes Alito’s.
Why the timing matters: the lame duck vs. the new Senate on Jan. 3
The new Senate isn’t seated until January 3, 2027, leaving Republicans a narrow lame-duck window to confirm a nominee if either justice stepped down now. That window may be smaller than the math suggests, though.
Trump-backed challengers ousted both John Cornyn and Bill Cassidy from the Senate this cycle, according to the Times, a grudge that could make either reluctant to deliver the president a confirmation win. Susan Collins, also defeated Tuesday, voted against confirming Amy Coney Barrett in 2020 over its rushed timeline, and Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski opposed Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation in 2018. Once the new Senate is seated, any replacement would need Democratic support: a steep climb for a conservative pick.
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Thomas at 78: what he’s said and the longest-serving-justice milestone
Thomas joined the court in 1991, appointed by George H.W. Bush, and remains its longest-tenured member. He has repeatedly said he isn’t going anywhere. Stick around through that next term, into roughly mid-2028, and Thomas overtakes William O. Douglas for the longest tenure in the court’s history, a milestone that may weigh on his thinking as much as politics does. His prediction market contracts reflect that resolve: thin trading and single-digit-to-low-teens odds across both deadlines, well below where Alito’s sit.
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What Democrats’ Senate majority means for a future nomination
Democratic Senate control now looks secure, with the party’s seat count already at 54 and climbing: Alaska and Mississippi remained too close to call as of midweek, leaving room for an even wider margin.
From January onward, any new vacancy would need Democratic cooperation to fill: a dynamic Trump has already complained about, once calling his own three appointees “merely a shell of their original selves” while praising Thomas and Alito by name.
A handful of federal appeals judges, Patrick Bumatay, James Ho and Amul Thapar among them, are already drawing early interest on Polymarket’s “Next justice” market, though no single name has pulled away as a clear favorite.
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How the retirement markets resolve
Each contract resolves YES only once a justice or an official representative announces retirement: not on the effective date, and not on rumor or secondhand sourcing. That distinction mattered in June, when a since-retracted report about Alito briefly moved prices before the underlying story fell apart. Kalshi and Polymarket each run separate deadline contracts for both justices, letting traders price not just whether, but roughly when, either man might step aside.
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