Kalshi's mention market for "What will Trump say during RNC Convention?" is live. The market rules call it the RNC Midterm Convention, a more accurate and useful description. Trump's keynote lands September 10, 54 days before Election Day. Whatever is welded into that speech is what his party runs on for the rest of the fall, and the transcript record already gives away the content.
Across nine set-piece speeches between July 1 and August 21, Trump gave nine almost identical speeches. The speeches were delivered in thematic blocks in roughly the same order each time. The closing run has been verbatim in every speech since April 17: crack down on Marxist prosecutors, end no cash bail, the great health care plan, and finally the SAVE America Act.
The border block is equally fixed — "from prisons and jails, from mental institutions and insane asylums, from drug dealers and 11,888 murderers" — and it turns up in five of his last six set-pieces, including the Rose Garden dinner for GOP lawmakers on September 2.
What Trump Could Say at RNC Convention
The blocks have been edited over the year as the framing needed alterations.
Drill baby drill is gone from his setlist. 5 of 36 April transcripts, 3 of 37 in May, 2 of 43 in June, then 0 across 52 in July and 0 across 39 in August. His last recorded use of the phrase was on June 24. But he hasn’t dropped the subject: oil appears in 17% of his transcripts across September-December 2025 and 54% across January-August 2026, 184 of 342. He kept the energy beat while dropping the production chant.
Rigged election went the same way. 13 of 43 transcripts in June, 4 in July, 0 in August. What replaced it is the SAVE America Act, a phrase absent from his speeches before February 2026 and present in 9 to 16 transcripts a month since. The 2020 grievance transformed into a forward-looking legislative ask, and is now his speech closer.
Now looking at the other side of the board: “Affordability.” One stray mention in 2024, nothing until November 2025, then 33 mentions across nine transcripts in August 2026, his heaviest month on record. He uses the word to attack it. At the Army War College on July 15, he said, "affordability, affordability they go. That's a fake word that they use." The word is his opponents', but he is saying it anyway, at a high frequency.
Set that against the political environment. Democrats are +6.4 on the national generic ballot, and Trump's net approval hit –20.6 on July 30, the lowest of either term. Kalshi has Democratic House control at 85% and Senate control at a coin flip. Trump’s speech blocks that survived the summer are the ones that are built for that environment: the border, the cost of living, an elections bill he wants passed. The ones that got cut only work when you are ahead.
