After a historic victory against Bosnia and Herzegovina, the USMNT successfully advanced to the World Cup Round of 16. However, despite the much-deserved celebrations across the nation, the triumph left a lingering shadow. Due to a highly controversial red card, manager Mauricio Pochettino will be forced to play without one of his most decisive attacking weapons: Folarin Balogun.
With the Monaco striker suspended, Christian Pulisic must step into a more prominent goalscoring role if the USMNT wants to eliminate a formidable Belgian side and extend their generational World Cup run. Let's analyze Pulisic’s current odds on the market and how event traders are reacting to the American frontline.
The Goal Market
There is an active Polymarket contract title “World Cup: Player to Score” in which traders try to predict exactly that. Naturally, the top choices on the board tend to be clinical, traditional strikers, but there are many factors that need to be taken into account. Currently, the USMNT's captain sits comfortably in third place on the board, right behind Michael Olise and Julian Alvarez.
When it comes to his immediate goalscoring prospects against Belgium, Polymarket traders view Christian Pulisic's line as a virtual coin flip, holding exactly a 50% implied probability. For context, this pricing places him comfortably above high-profile international attackers like Egypt’s Omar Marmoush—who has endured a deeply disappointing World Cup campaign—and Argentina’s Enzo Fernández.
Further down the trading ladder appear teammates Ricardo Pepi and Weston McKennie, key players that so far had a formidable World Cup performance, but that traders believe that have way less chances of scoring in the next game.
Playmakers vs. Goalscorers
An interesting case study within this market is France's Michael Olise, an impressive attacker that is having an excellent World Cup performance despite not scoring. While Olise has zero goals on his personal tally, he has secured a spot in the French starting eleven by leading the tournament’s assist charts. Goals will eventually come, that’s why his implied probability is 75%.
Now, Christian Pulisic presents a fundamentally different profile. While he currently stands as the fifth all-time leading goalscorer for the USMNT, he is not a traditional striker that tends to accumulate a massive amount of caps like Harry Kane or Erling Haaland. His role within Pochettino’s team is that of a playmaker, a creative link between the midfield and the opposite box. So far he has provided multiple assists that were crucial to reaching the Round of 16.
Captain America Must Step Up
Without Balogun available, analysts are predicting a starting eleven with Ricardo Pepi as the main striker, and a more offensive version of Christian Pulisic to add weight to the USMNT’s attack. In this context, the team’s captain will be more likely to shoot from long distances and even have a few clear chances inside the box.
The match against Belgium will be a trial-by-fire for the American star, as he will face a powerful European team that features elite players, but that also has shown considerable problems both in attack and defense. If the USMNT wants to continue in the tournament, Pulisic will have to show up with another facet of his game, shifting from provider to finisher to send the Americans through.
