While the group stage had its share of difficulties, the Round of 32 is the World Cup’s first true trial-by-fire for many elite teams that previously qualified without major complications. France was one of those sides. Yesterday, Kylian Mbappe and his teammates cemented their status as the prime candidates to take home the trophy with an outstanding, dominant performance against Sweden. The markets reacted instantly, sending the French national team's implied probability of winning the World Cup spiking to unprecedented heights.
Let’s analyze the current situation of Les Bleus and why the market is completely amazed by their tactical level.
The Perfect Attacking Machine
It is the 73rd minute. Mbappe commands the attack against three Swedish defenders. He slips a brilliant back-heel pass to Bradley Barcola. Barcola rapidly scans the field and plays it inside to Michael Olise. While the Bayern Munich star makes a sharp turn to the left, Mbappe and Barcola switch sides in a fraction of a second. Olise delivers a refined, unexpected assist, leaving the number 10 alone against Zetterström, the Swedish goalie. Mbappe never fails; the ball crashes into the back of the net. It’s France 3, Sweden 0. The stadium goes wild, and so do the event traders at Kalshi.
Within the last 12 hours, France has reached its all-time high implied probability of winning the World Cup. Les Bleus currently lead the board with a continuously growing 35% chance of victory. The mesmerizing performances of Mbappe, Olise, Doue and Barcola have convinced the majority of traders that only a historic upset can prevent the unavoidable: France securing its third international star.
Who Can Stop France on the Way to the Final?
In addition to the pure soccer genius of the squad, France's projected path to the final appears accessible. They will face Paraguay in the Round of 16. If they succeed in eliminating the fierce South Americans, they will advance to play either Canada or Morocco. The North Africans are widely considered one of the best tactical teams in the tournament, boasting world-class talents like Brahim Díaz, Noussair Mazraoui and their captain, Achraf Hakimi. However, they would still enter a potential clash against France as heavy underdogs.
The semifinals are when things will get significantly trickier for the Didier Deschamps-led squad, as they could collide with star-studded powerhouses like Spain or Portugal, or an experienced, always-reliable Croatian side.
The Argentina Factor
Looking at the Kalshi trading board, the market positions reigning champions Argentina as the primary threat to France's crown. Sitting at a 20% implied probability, the South Americans are the main chasers. Up until June 28, the pricing gap between them and France was a tight 4%.
Argentina remains an incredibly reliable squad, combining elite young talent with veteran stars who have already cemented their legacy as competitive beasts. They know exactly how to handle the extreme psychological pressure of elite knockout tournaments. However, Lionel Messi and his squad are still scheduled to play their Round of 32 match against Cape Verde. A signature masterclass performance from the captain could easily balance out the Kalshi market, narrowing the gap between Argentina and France once again.
On the other hand, if the Cape Verdeans manage to pull off a victory, it would not only go down as the biggest upset in World Cup history, but it would also turn France’s journey toward international glory into a one-horse race.
Overreactions, Early Hype and Soccer’s Unpredictability
Yes, France seems like an undefeatable team with unmatched attacking power. Yes, Mbappe is at the top of his game and he loves to compete in soccer's biggest tournament. Those are compelling arguments that cement France as the clear frontrunner, but history is full of heavy favorites that ended up crashing before the finish line. Especially in an unpredictable sport like soccer, where a team like Germany, boasting Premier League and Bundesliga superstars, can be humbled and eliminated by a Paraguayan side composed primarily of players from the Argentinian and Brazilian leagues.
Underestimating the rival is a major mistake that can lead to disaster. Kylian Mbappe knows this better than anyone. Following the victory over Sweden, he emphasized that the team was already entirely focused on their next challenge against the "garra Guaraní"—the legendary Paraguayan fighting spirit.
While Les Bleus comfortably command the trading board, they will still have to command the pitch to truly claim the crown.
