Borussia Dortmund travels to the New Balance Arena in Bergamo, Italy, to face Atalanta today, with kickoff at 12:45 p.m. EST, while the German side holds a two-goal advantage in this Champions League knockout tie.
The Italian hosts face a monumental task to overturn the deficit, which should force an open and aggressive contest from the start
Atalanta is favored at a +110 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-138o / +110u) goals.
Let's get into my Dortmund vs. Atalanta prediction.
Dortmund vs. Atalanta Prediction
Pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes
My Dortmund vs. Atalanta best bet is for both teams to find the back of the net.
Dortmund vs. Atalanta Odds
| Dortmund Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -140 | 2.5 -138o / 110u | +225 |
| Atalanta Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +100 | 2.5 -138o / 110u | +110 |
Dortmund vs. Atalanta Picks
Pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes (-163)
Atalanta enters this second leg with no choice but to attack. Down 2-0 on aggregate, the Italian club must score at least twice to have any chance of advancing.
This necessity will dictate their game plan and likely result in a high-scoring match. Atalanta’s offensive record at home provides a strong foundation for this belief. The team has scored in all seven of its home games in 2026 and posts an average of 2.29 goals per contest. They possess the firepower to trouble the Dortmund defense, especially in front of their own supporters.
On the other side, Borussia Dortmund is a consistent offensive threat on the road. The German club has scored in nine of its last ten away games across all competitions. While they hold a comfortable lead, their defensive record in the Champions League this season suggests they are far from impenetrable away from home.
Dortmund has conceded a goal in all four of its Champions League away matches this season, with opponents averaging three goals per game.
The combination of Atalanta’s desperate need for goals and Dortmund’s proven ability to score on the road, paired with their defensive vulnerabilities in this competition, creates the ideal conditions for both teams to score.
While Atalanta produced a meager 0.46 expected goals (xG) in the first leg, the home environment and do-or-die scenario should fuel a much more potent offensive display.
Dortmund vs. Atalanta Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Dortmund | Draw | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| 33.5% | 22.9% | 43.6% |
Projected Total Goals
| Dortmund | Total Goals | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| 1.3 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
Dortmund vs. Atalanta Betting Analysis
Borussia Dortmund enters this second leg with a commanding 2-0 lead and a strong historical record to back it up. The club has advanced from all seven European ties in which it held a two-goal advantage after the first leg.
History is not on Atalanta’s side; before this season, only 15 of 126 teams have managed to overturn a two-goal or greater first-leg deficit in the UEFA Champions League.
The first match demonstrated a clear gap between the two sides. Dortmund was dominant, with 2.09 expected goals (xG) compared to just 0.46 for Atalanta.
Dortmund striker Serhou Guirassy was particularly effective, and his involvement in 24 goals across 23 Champions League appearances shows he is a constant threat.
However, Dortmund’s away form in Europe has been inconsistent, with just one win in their last five road games. They also have a poor record in Italy, with one victory in their last eight trips.
Atalanta will have to push the pace from the opening whistle, which could leave them exposed to Dortmund's attack. The Italian squad also faces significant offensive hurdles with key offensive players such as Charles De Ketelaere and Giacomo Raspadori out with injuries.
While an early goal for the hosts could shift the dynamic, Dortmund's performance in the first leg and Atalanta's injury situation suggest the German side is well-positioned to manage this tie and advance.
Check out the best soccer odds before making your Dortmund vs. Atalanta picks.
